ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    宁波市地面沉降现状分析及风险评价

    Analysis and risk evaluation of current land subsidence in Ningbo City

    • 摘要: 针对宁波市地面沉降发展现状及风险评价需求,结合2017—2020年的InSAR遥感监测数据与沉降点监测数据,对近年地面沉降特征进行了分析。在此基础上建立了包括地面高程、沉降易发程度、地面累计沉降量、沉降速率、城市人口密度、建设用地占比重等6个评价因子为主的地面沉降风险评价体系。其中沉降易发程度为综合考虑地质条件、水文地质条件、人为活动影响后的综合性评价因子。地面沉降风险评价结果表明:宁波市地面沉降无高易发区,中、低易发区主要与区内全新世软土层厚大、历史上大量开采地下水、局部高强度城市建设以及沿海围垦工程等因素有关。最后,划分了地面沉降中风险区、低风险区、风险防控带,并提出了相应的地面沉降风险区管控建议。

       

      Abstract: In response to evaluating the current status and assessing the risk assessment requirements of land subsidence in Ningbo City, the characteristics of land subsidence in recent years were analyzed using InSAR remote sensing monitoring data and subsidence point monitoring data from 2017 to 2020. Based on this analysis, a land subsidence risk assessment system has been developed, primarily consisting of six evaluation factors, including ground elevation, susceptibility to subsidence, cumulative ground subsidence, subsidence rate, urban population density, and the proportion of construction land usage. The susceptibility to subsidence is a comprehensive evaluation factor that takes into account geological conditions, hydrogeological conditions, and the impact of human activities. The results of the land subsidence risk assessment indicate that there are no high-risk susceptibility zones for land subsidence in Ningbo City. Medium and low-risk susceptibility zones are primarily associated with factors such as the thick layers of the Holocene soft soil, historical excessive groundwater extraction, localized high-intensity urban development, and coastal land reclamation projects within the region. Finally, the areas were categorized into medium-risk, low-risk, and risk prevention zones, along with corresponding control recommendations for land subsidence risk management.

       

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