ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    三峡库区武隆段滑坡灾害驱动因子演变格局与人类活动的影响

    The evolution pattern and influence of human activities of landslide driving factors in Wulong section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area

    • 摘要: 在快速城镇化背景下,人类活动已成为影响滑坡分布的重要因素。文章以重庆武隆区为例,基于1991—2015年330处历史滑坡数据,运用重力模型和标准差椭圆模型,揭示了武隆区滑坡灾害的时空演变格局;利用地理探测器分析了2001—2005、2006—2010和2011—2015三个时段滑坡分布的驱动因子,解释了滑坡驱动因子演变的机制。结果表明:(1)在时间分布上,武隆滑坡累计曲线呈现出“缓-陡-缓”的特征,2008年之前,滑坡发生速率随降雨量的增加而增长,而后在降雨量保持稳定的情况下,滑坡发生速率明显减缓;(2)在空间分布上,武隆滑坡集聚于西、中、东3个高发区,呈现出由西北—东南方向转向东北—西南方向的变化过程,并表现出方向性减弱和离散化的趋势;(3)在驱动因子上,降雨、地质因子和地形地貌等因子的解释力呈下降趋势,而人类活动因子的解释力不断增强,已逐渐成为影响滑坡分布的关键影响因素之一。研究成果可为三峡库区滑坡灾害防灾减灾工作部署提供依据。

       

      Abstract: Human activities have play an important role in the spatial distribution of landslides, accompanied by rapid urbanization. This research takes Wulong district of Chongqing as an example, the research data are 330 historical landslides from 1991 to 2015. The spatio-temporal evolution pattern of landslide was revealed, with the aid of gravity model and standard deviation ellipse model; and the driving factors of landslide distribution in three time periods, 2001—2005, 2006—2010, and 2011—2015, were analyzed using GeoDetector. The results show that: (1) In terms of temporal distribution, the cumulative landslide curve of Wulong shows the characteristics of slow-steep-slow. Before 2008, the occurrence rate of landslide increased with the increase of rainfall, and then decreased significantly when the rainfall remained stable; (2) In terms of spatial distribution, Wulong’s landslides were clustered in three hotspots, and showed a change process from northwest-southeast direction to northeast-southwest direction, with a trend of weakening directionality and dispersion; (3) In terms of driving factors, the explanatory power of factors such as rainfall, geology and geomorphology is decreasing, however, the explanatory power of human activity factors is increasing and has gradually become one of the key influencing factors on landslide distribution. The research results can provide an important support for the landslide disaster prevention and mitigation in the Three Gorges reservoir area.

       

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