Research on high-altitude avalanche Susceptibility Area Zoning based on informativeness modeling in the Duoxiong River Basin, Tibet

With global climate warming, the rate of snow and ice melting has accelerated, leading to frequent avalanche disasters, which seriously threaten people's lives and properties and the safety of transportation corridors in alpine mountainous areas. Taking the Daxiong River Basin downstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River as the research object, 70 avalanche points were identified and verified based on remote sensing interpretation and field investigation. Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was used for conducting covariance analysis, and 10 evaluation factors including elevation, slope, slope direction, ground curvature, surface cutting depth, surface cover type, vegetation coverage, TWI, average annual minimum temperature, and NDSI were comprehensively selected to construct an avalanche susceptibility evaluation system. The information value model was used for avalanche susceptibility zoning on the ArcGIS platform, dividing the study area into three categories: low susceptibility, medium susceptibility, and high susceptibility zones, and accuracy verification was conducted using ROC curve. The results show that the AUC value of the avalanche susceptibility evaluation model is 0.835, indicating good predictive accuracy. The areas of low, medium, and high susceptibility zones are 60.61 km², 74.33 km², and 96.91 km², respectively, accounting for 26.14%, 32.06%, and 41.80% of the total area of the study area. High susceptible zones are mainly located in mid-to-high and high-altitude areas, with Mount Duoxiongla, YangGaLa, and LaGe being typical. Finally, based on the combination of active and passive defense measures, integrated monitoring and early warning techniques, and corresponding architectural structures are proposed, providing technical support and scientific reference for engineering construction and disaster prevention and mitigation in the Duoxiong River Basin.