Analysis of the “631” geological disaster early warning mode and case studies in Hunan Province

Rainfall is the primary trigger for geological disasters, yet accurately predicting the timing and distribution of rainfall remains challenging, contributing to the high false alarm rates of traditional short-term geological disaster early warning systems. Located in south-central China, Hunan Province experiences abundant rainfall and relatively fragile geological conditions, making it susceptible to frequent geological disasters. To address the escalating challenges of geological disaster prevention and control, a “631” progressive geological disaster meteorological risk early warning model has been constructed based on years of early warning work experience in Hunan Province. This early warning model is technically supported by the comprehensive geological disaster prevention and control information system of Hunan Province, and is based on accurate short-term rainfall forecasts and real-time precipitation. It establishes an early warning and response mechanism, issuing warning six hours in advance to forecast rainfall areas, three hours in advance for general warnings, one hour in advance for responses, and thirty minutes in advance for further response. Currently, this early warning model has been widely applied in geological disaster prevention and control efforts across the province, and greatly improving the efficiency and accuracy of early warnings. In early June 2022, Hunan Province encountered an unprecedented heavy rainfall event that exceeded historical records, and geological disasters occurred in clusters. Through the application of this early warning model, Hunan ranked first nationwide in the number of evacuees and avoidance measures implemented in 2022, demonstrating significant disaster prevention results.