ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
  • Included in Scopus
  • Included in DOAJ
  • The key magazine of China technology
  • Included in CSCD
  • Caj-cd Standard Award winning journals
Wechat
Volume 34 Issue 6
Dec.  2023
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
ZHOU Yu，XIAO Wen，LI Sanjiao，et al. Comparison and application on meteorological forecast models of geological hazards for highways in low mountain and hilly area: A case study along the highways in Jiangxi Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control，2023，34(6): 77-85. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303039
Citation: ZHOU Yu，XIAO Wen，LI Sanjiao，et al. Comparison and application on meteorological forecast models of geological hazards for highways in low mountain and hilly area: A case study along the highways in Jiangxi Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control，2023，34(6): 77-85. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303039
shu

Comparison and application on meteorological forecast models of geological hazards for highways in low mountain and hilly area: A case study along the highways in Jiangxi Province

  • Jiangxi Meteorological Service Center, Nanchang, Jiangxi　330096, China

More Information
  • Received Date: March 16, 2023
  • Revised Date: July 18, 2023
  • Accepted Date: August 22, 2023
  • Available Online: August 28, 2023
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • In order to improve the prediction and early warning of road geological hazards and mitigate the impact of heavy rainfall on the safety of high-speed driving in mountainous areas, this paper combines precipitation data from national meteorological stations with data from traffic meteorological stations along highways in Jiangxi Province. Based on the analysis of the geological environment conditions and rainfall characteristics along the highways, four machine learning methods including Support Vector Machine (SVM), logical regression, K neighbors and random forest were adopted to do research on the highway geological disaster forecast modeling and early warning test. The results show that: (1) The majority of geological disasters along Jiangxi highways are located at altitudes of 300 to 450 meters, with slope gradients mostly ranging from 20° to 35°. As terrain slope increases, a unimodal distribution of hazards is observed. Regions with dense river networks and certain vegetation coverage are more prone to experiencing geological hazards. (2) Three main types of rainfall inducing highway geological hazards are identified: long-term rainfall, short-term rainfall, and short-time rainfall. (3) Comparative assessment of four kinds of geological hazard machine learning methods dedicated to geological disasters demonstrates that, for rainfall-induced geological hazards, all four predictive models achieve accuracies exceeding 0.75. Further study found that the logistic regression and random forest model outperform others in forecasting accuracy for both long and short rainfall periods, while the K-neighbor approach was better for short-term rainfall forecast.
    • FullText(HTML)
  • loading
    • References (30)
  • [1]
    陶星宇,柳锦宝,黄志刚,等. 林芝市公路地质灾害易发性区划及气象预报模型[J]. 水土保持通报,2022,42(2):195 − 202. [TAO Xingyu,LIU Jinbao,HUANG Zhigang,et al. Zoning of highway geological hazard susceptibility and meteorological forecast model in Linzhi City[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,42(2):195 − 202. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-288X.2022.2.stbctb202202027

    TAO Xingyu, LIU Jinbao, HUANG Zhigang, et al. Zoning of highway geological hazard susceptibility and meteorological forecast model in Linzhi City［J］. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022, 42（2）: 195 − 202. （in Chinese with English abstract） DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-288X.2022.2.stbctb202202027
    [2]
    冯军,尚学军,樊明,等. 陇南地质灾害降雨区划及临界雨量研究[J]. 干旱气象,2006,24(4):20 − 24. [FENG Jun,SHANG Xuejun,FAN Ming,et al. Geological calamity distribution and critical rainfall in Longnan region of Gansu Province[J]. Arid Meteorology,2006,24(4):20 − 24. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    FENG Jun, SHANG Xuejun, FAN Ming, et al. Geological calamity distribution and critical rainfall in Longnan region of Gansu Province［J］. Arid Meteorology, 2006, 24（4）: 20 − 24. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [3]
    刘传正,温铭生,唐灿. 中国地质灾害气象预警初步研究[J]. 地质通报,2004,23(4):303 − 309. [LIU Chuanzheng,WEN Mingsheng,TANG Can. Meteorological early warning of geo-hazards in China based on raining forecast[J]. Geological Bulletin of China,2004,23(4):303 − 309. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    LIU Chuanzheng, WEN Mingsheng, TANG Can. Meteorological early warning of geo-hazards in China based on raining forecast［J］. Geological Bulletin of China, 2004, 23（4）: 303 − 309. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [4]
    白利平. 北京山区泥石流灾害临界雨量研究[J]. 地质灾害与环境保护,2006,17(4):101 − 104. [BAI Liping. The research on critical rainfall for debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing[J]. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2006,17(4):101 − 104. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    BAI Liping. The research on critical rainfall for debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing［J］. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation, 2006, 17（4）: 101 − 104. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [5]
    汤人杰,徐光黎,汤忠强. 温州群发性坡面泥石流临界雨量研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2019,30(3):60 − 66. [TANG Renjie,XU Guangli,TANG Zhongqiang. Study on critical rainfall of grouped slope debris flows in Wenzhou[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2019,30(3):60 − 66. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    TANG Renjie, XU Guangli, TANG Zhongqiang. Study on critical rainfall of grouped slope debris flows in Wenzhou［J］. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2019, 30（3）: 60 − 66. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [6]
    吕小波,游勇,柳金峰,等. 汶川2019年“8·20”群发性泥石流降雨特征与临界雨量分析[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2021,57(6):775 − 782. [LYU Xiaobo,YOU Yong,LIU Jinfeng,et al. Rainfall characteristics and rain threshold of Wenchuan debris flows on August 20,2019[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences),2021,57(6):775 − 782. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    LYU Xiaobo, YOU Yong, LIU Jinfeng, et al. Rainfall characteristics and rain threshold of Wenchuan debris flows on August 20, 2019［J］. Journal of Lanzhou University （Natural Sciences）, 2021, 57（6）: 775 − 782. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [7]
    刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等. 中国地质灾害气象预警实践:2003—2012[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):1 − 8. [LIU Chuanzheng,LIU Yanhui,WEN Mingsheng,et al. Early warning for regional geo-hazards during 2003-2012,China[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2015,26(1):1 − 8. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    LIU Chuanzheng, LIU Yanhui, WEN Mingsheng, et al. Early warning for regional geo-hazards during 2003-2012, China［J］. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2015, 26（1）: 1 − 8. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [8]
    狄靖月,许凤雯,包红军,等. 引发山洪的降水特征及动态阈值研究[J]. 暴雨灾害,2021,40(6):655 − 663. [DI Jingyue,XU Fengwen,BAO Hongjun,et al. Research on precipitation characteristics and dynamic critical thresholds of flash flood disasters[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters,2021,40(6):655 − 663. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.06.010

    DI Jingyue, XU Fengwen, BAO Hongjun, et al. Research on precipitation characteristics and dynamic critical thresholds of flash flood disasters［J］. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2021, 40（6）: 655 − 663. （in Chinese with English abstract） DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.06.010
    [9]
    张海磊,唐茂,汤明高,等. 山区油气管道的滑坡灾害风险评估方法[J]. 地质灾害与环境保护,2022,33(3):90 − 95. [ZHANG Hailei,TANG Mao,TANG Minggao,et al. Landslide hazard risk assessment method of oil and gas pipeline in mountainous area[J]. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2022,33(3):90 − 95. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-4362.2022.03.015

    ZHANG Hailei, TANG Mao, TANG Minggao, et al. Landslide hazard risk assessment method of oil and gas pipeline in mountainous area［J］. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation, 2022, 33（3）: 90 − 95. （in Chinese with English abstract） DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-4362.2022.03.015
    [10]
    刘艳辉,刘传正,温铭生,等. 中国地质灾害气象预警模型研究[J]. 工程地质学报,2015,23(4):738 − 746. [LIU Yanhui,LIU Chuanzheng,WEN Mingsheng,et al. Study of early warning models for regional geo-hazards in China[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(4):738 − 746. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    LIU Yanhui, LIU Chuanzheng, WEN Mingsheng, et al. Study of early warning models for regional geo-hazards in China［J］. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2015, 23（4）: 738 − 746. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [11]
    ZHANG Shaojie,WEI Fangqiang,LIU Dunlong,et al. A regional-scale method of forecasting debris flow events based on water-soil coupling mechanism[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(6):1531 − 1542. DOI: 10.1007/s11629-013-2906-z
    [12]
    包红军,王凯,张少杰,等. 耦合分布式水文模型的泥石流物理模型预报试验[J]. 暴雨灾害,2018,37(4):303 − 310. [BAO Hongjun,WANG Kai,ZHANG Shaojie,et al. Debris flow forecasting test based on a physical model coupling with a distributed hydrological model[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters,2018,37(4):303 − 310. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    BAO Hongjun, WANG Kai, ZHANG Shaojie, et al. Debris flow forecasting test based on a physical model coupling with a distributed hydrological model［J］. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2018, 37（4）: 303 − 310. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [13]
    PAN Huali,JIANG Yuanjun,WANG Jun,et al. Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2018,18(5):1395 − 1409. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-18-1395-2018
    [14]
    KAINTHURA P,SINGH V,GUPTA S. GIS based model for monitoring and predition of landslide susceptibility[C]//2015 1st International Conference on Next Generation Computing Technologies (NGCT). September 4-5,2015,Dehradun,India. IEEE,2016:584-587.
    [15]
    包红军,王莉莉,沈学顺,等. 气象水文耦合的洪水预报研究进展[J]. 气象,2016,42(9):1045 − 1057. [BAO Hongjun,WANG Lili,SHEN Xueshun,et al. A review:advances of flood forecasting of hydro-meteorological forecast technology[J]. Meteorological,2016,42(9):1045 − 1057. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    BAO Hongjun, WANG Lili, SHEN Xueshun, et al. A review: advances of flood forecasting of hydro-meteorological forecast technology［J］. Meteorological, 2016, 42（9）: 1045 − 1057. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [16]
    黄发明,殷坤龙,蒋水华,等. 基于聚类分析和支持向量机的滑坡易发性评价[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2018,37(1):156 − 167. [HUANG Faming,YIN Kunlong,JIANG Shuihua,et al. Landslide susceptibility assessment based on clustering analysis and support vector machine[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2018,37(1):156 − 167. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    HUANG Faming, YIN Kunlong, JIANG Shuihua, et al. Landslide susceptibility assessment based on clustering analysis and support vector machine［J］. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2018, 37（1）: 156 − 167. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [17]
    孙德亮. 基于机器学习的滑坡易发性区划与降雨诱发滑坡预报预警研究[D]. 上海:华东师范大学,2019. [SUN Deliang. Mapping landslide susceptibility based on machine learning and forecast warning of landslide induced by rainfall[D]. Shanghai:East China Normal University,2019. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    SUN Deliang. Mapping landslide susceptibility based on machine learning and forecast warning of landslide induced by rainfall［D］. Shanghai: East China Normal University, 2019. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [18]
    黄露. 基于机器学习的汶川震区滑坡灾害气象预警模型研究[J]. 测绘学报,2020,49(2):267. [HUANG Lu. Research on meteorological early-warning model of landslides in Wenchuan earthquake area based on machine learning[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica,2020,49(2):267. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    HUANG Lu. Research on meteorological early-warning model of landslides in Wenchuan earthquake area based on machine learning［J］. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2020, 49（2）: 267. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [19]
    刘福臻,王灵,肖东升. 机器学习模型在滑坡易发性评价中的应用[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2021,32(6):98 − 106. [LIU Fuzhen,WANG Ling,XIAO Dongsheng. Application of machine learning model in landslide susceptibility evaluation[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2021,32(6):98 − 106. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    LIU Fuzhen, WANG Ling, XIAO Dongsheng. Application of machine learning model in landslide susceptibility evaluation［J］. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2021, 32（6）: 98 − 106. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [20]
    董力豪,刘艳辉,黄俊宝,等. 基于卷积神经网络的福建省区域滑坡灾害预警模型[J]. 水文地质工程地质:1 − 9(2023-05-09)[2023-06-10]. [DONG Lihao,LIU Yanhui,HUANG Junbao,et al. An early prediction model of regional landslide disasters in Fujian Province based on convolutional neural network[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology:1 − 9(2023-05-09)[2023-06-10]. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    DONG Lihao, LIU Yanhui, HUANG Junbao, et al. An early prediction model of regional landslide disasters in Fujian Province based on convolutional neural network［J］. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology: 1 − 9（2023-05-09）[2023-06-10]. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [21]
    陈伟强,靖洪文,孟波,等. 基于SVM的岩石图像分析软件的研发与应用[J]. 煤炭技术,2018,37(7):316 − 319. [CHEN Weiqiang,JING Hongwen,MENG Bo,et al. Development and application of analytical software for rock images based on SVM[J]. Coal Technology,2018,37(7):316 − 319. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    CHEN Weiqiang, JING Hongwen, MENG Bo, et al. Development and application of analytical software for rock images based on SVM［J］. Coal Technology, 2018, 37（7）: 316 − 319. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [22]
    金权,华锋,杨永增. 基于SVM的海浪要素预测试验研究[J]. 海洋科学进展,2019,37(2):199 − 209. [JIN Quan,HUA Feng,YANG Yongzeng. Prediction of the significant wave height based on the support vector machine[J]. Advances in Marine Science,2019,37(2):199 − 209. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    JIN Quan, HUA Feng, YANG Yongzeng. Prediction of the significant wave height based on the support vector machine［J］. Advances in Marine Science, 2019, 37（2）: 199 − 209. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [23]
    姚登举. 面向医学数据的随机森林特征选择及分类方法研究[D]. 哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2016. [YAO Dengju. Research on feature selection and classification method based on random forest for medical datasets[D]. Harbin:Harbin Engineering University,2016. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    YAO Dengju. Research on feature selection and classification method based on random forest for medical datasets［D］. Harbin: Harbin Engineering University, 2016. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [24]
    宫清华,黄光庆,郭敏,等. 地质灾害预报预警的研究现状及发展趋势[J]. 世界地质,2006,25(3):296 − 302. [GONG Qinghua,HUANG Guangqing,GUO Min,et al. Present status of research and its developmental tendency on prediction and early warning of geologic hazards[J]. Global Geology,2006,25(3):296 − 302. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    GONG Qinghua, HUANG Guangqing, GUO Min, et al. Present status of research and its developmental tendency on prediction and early warning of geologic hazards［J］. Global Geology, 2006, 25（3）: 296 − 302. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [25]
    蒋宗孝,江彩英,王加义,等. 闽北地质灾害与降水关系分析[J]. 世界地质,2009,28(1):127 − 133. [JIANG Zongxiao,JIANG Caiying,WANG Jiayi,et al. Analysis of geological hazard and its relationship with precipitation in northern Fujian[J]. Global Geology,2009,28(1):127 − 133. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    JIANG Zongxiao, JIANG Caiying, WANG Jiayi, et al. Analysis of geological hazard and its relationship with precipitation in northern Fujian［J］. Global Geology, 2009, 28（1）: 127 − 133. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [26]
    陈静静,姚蓉,文强,等. 湖南省降雨型地质灾害致灾雨量阈值分析[J]. 灾害学,2014,29(2):42 − 47. [CHEN Jingjing,YAO Rong,WEN Qiang,et al. Hazard rainfall threshold analysis of rainfall-induced geological disasters in Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(2):42 − 47. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    CHEN Jingjing, YAO Rong, WEN Qiang, et al. Hazard rainfall threshold analysis of rainfall-induced geological disasters in Hunan Province［J］. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014, 29（2）: 42 − 47. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [27]
    杨竹云,许彦艳,许迎杰,等. 云南省不同降水型地质灾害的降水特征对比分析[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版),2023,45(3):634 − 641. [YANG Zhuyun,XU Yanyan,XU Yingjie,et al. A comparative analysis about precipitation characteristics of geological disasters of different precipitation types in Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Sciences Edition),2023,45(3):634 − 641. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    YANG Zhuyun, XU Yanyan, XU Yingjie, et al. A comparative analysis about precipitation characteristics of geological disasters of different precipitation types in Yunnan Province［J］. Journal of Yunnan University （Natural Sciences Edition）, 2023, 45（3）: 634 − 641. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [28]
    陈华兴. 公路地质灾害监测预报技术在毕都高速公路上的应用研究[J]. 公路交通技术,2015,31(4):22 − 25. [CHEN Huaxing. Research on application of highway geological disaster monitoring and forecasting technique on Bijie-Duge expressway[J]. Technology of Highway and Transport,2015,31(4):22 − 25. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    CHEN Huaxing. Research on application of highway geological disaster monitoring and forecasting technique on Bijie-Duge expressway［J］. Technology of Highway and Transport, 2015, 31（4）: 22 − 25. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [29]
    李宇梅,狄靖月,许凤雯,等. 基于当日临界雨量的国家级地质灾害风险预警方法[J]. 气象科技进展,2018,8(3):77 − 83. [LI Yumei,DI Jingyue,XU Fengwen,et al. A risk warning method based on the intraday critical precipitation for national geological disaster[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2018,8(3):77 − 83. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    LI Yumei, DI Jingyue, XU Fengwen, et al. A risk warning method based on the intraday critical precipitation for national geological disaster［J］. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2018, 8（3）: 77 − 83. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    [30]
    刘洋. 公路工程环境地质灾害防治措施探究[J]. 城市建筑,2014(23):307. [LIU Yang. Research environment geological disaster prevention measures of highway engineering[J]. Urbanism and Architecture,2014(23):307. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    LIU Yang. Research environment geological disaster prevention measures of highway engineering［J］. Urbanism and Architecture, 2014（23）: 307. （in Chinese with English abstract）
    • Related Articles

Catalog

    Figures(5)  /  Tables(2)

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    Article views PDF downloads Cited by()

    Email alert

    RSS

    • Address: 20 Dahui temple, Haidian District, Beijing
    • Distribution contact：010-60850957
    • Advertising contact：010-60850956
    • Notice of advertisement release registration：京海工商广登字20170026号
    • Copyright：Editorial Office of The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control 京ICP备12022220号-1  百度统计

    Links：

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return