An improved Pearl model for landslide forecast and its application

According to the problem that there is bigger error by using selected-point method and alternate method to calculate Pearl model parameters, and the forecast criterion of landslide time lacks enough rationality, and the forecasting accuracy may be lower, the nonlinear fitting method is applied to calculating parameters of Pearl model, and the calculation formulas of forecast time based on the maximum criterion of velocity and acceleration of Pearl model were deduced. By applying nonlinear fitting method and the calculation formula of forecast criterion on actual landslide prediction and forecast. Forecast results indicate that the actual occurrence time of landslide is earlier than the forecast time of velocity maximum criterion and later than the forecast time of acceleration maximum criterion. Taking the forecast time of acceleration maximum criterion of Pearl model as the forecast time of landslide happening can play a role of early warning.