Research on the geo-hazard meteorological risk early warning model in Guizhou Province

Rainfall is the primary triggering factor for most geological disasters in Guizhou Province. To address the limitations of conventional early warning approaches based on single critical rainfall thresholds, this study is grounded in the fundamental theory and methodology of explicit statistical models for geological hazards. The coupling effects of geological environmental conditions and rainfall parameters are systematically analyzed to establish a comprehensive early warning indicator system. Specifically, the Certainty Factor (CF) method combined with a multi-factor weighted overlay approach is employed to quantify and weight selected geological environmental factors. The "susceptibility index" of geological disasters is used as an indicator to characterize the hazard level of the study area. The three-day antecedent effective rainfall and the daily rainfall are adopted as indicators of rainfall-triggering factors. By analyzing the coupling relationships among geological environmental factors, rainfall-triggering factors, and geological hazard occurence, a regional conventional meteorological early warning model for geological hazards over the next 24 hours is developed based on hazard levels. Early warning simulations for three representative periods during 2023–2024 in Guizhou Province indicate that more than 80% of geological hazard events fall within the predicted warning zones. The hit rate exceeds 86%, while the miss rate remains below 15%. The results demonstrate that the proposed meteorological risk early warning model based on geological hazard potential exhibits good feasibility and practical applicability in Guizhou Province.