Research on the comprehensive control technology system of large-scale debris flows in the area affected by strong earthquake in Longmenshan, Sichuan Province
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摘要:
强震区泥石流表现出群沟暴发、范围广、持续时间长、规模大、危害重、防治难等特点，文章以强震区数十条典型特大泥石流沟为研究对象，采用野外调查、分析统计、试验验证及示范工程应用等方法，开展了典型泥石流沟特点及其防治工程效果研究，构建了强震区特大泥石流综合防控技术体系，形成了强震区特大泥石流勘查设计技术和防控关键技术体系。勘查设计体系在现有勘查技术基础上提出震裂物源识别新技术、堵塞系数分项取值新思路等；根据泥石流沟谷形态将强震区泥石流分为窄陡型和宽缓型；防控关键技术体系针对不同沟谷形态的泥石流分别进行综合防控关键技术探讨实践，统筹考虑了窄陡型和宽缓型泥石流沟上游、中游、下游沟谷特征。组合多种综合防控措施，建立了“起动控源→过程控量→末端控灾”逐级控制的强震区特大泥石流综合防控体系。结果可为强震区泥石流综合防控提供技术支撑，也可为非震区泥石流综合防控提供参考。
Abstract:In response to the challenges posed by frequent, widespread, long-lasting, large-scale, severe, and difficult-to-control debris flows in strong earthquake areas, this study, based on the results of the National Key R&D Program, investigates dozens of typical mega debris flow gullies in these regions. Through test verification and demonstration engineering application, the characteristics of typical debris flow ditches and their prevention and control engineering effects were studied, leading to the construction of a comprehensive technical system for the prevention and control of mega debris flows in strong earthquake areas. A key technical system for exploration, design, prevention, and control of mega debris flows in strong earthquake areas was formed. The exploration and design system introduced new technologies for identifying earthquake-induced fracturing sources and novel approaches for determining blocking coefficients based on existing exploration technologies. According to the morphology of debris flow valleys in seismic areas, debris flows are classified as narrow and steep or wide and gentle. The key technology system for prevention and control was established to comprehensively discuss and practice key technologies for preventing and controlling debris flows in different valley morphologies. Considering the characteristics of debris flow valleys in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of both narrow and steep or wide and gentle debris flow valleys, a combination of various comprehensive prevention and control measures was proposed. This led to the establishment of a hierarchical control system for major debris flows in seismic areas, from controlling the source to the process and ultimately mitigating disasters. This system not only provides technical support for comprehensive prevention and control of debris flows in seismic areas but also serves as a reference for comprehensive prevention and control of debris flows in non-seismic areas.
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0. 引言
四川省汶川县“5•12”特大地震发生后，强震区连续多年暴发特大泥石流，表现出群沟暴发、范围广、规模大、持续时间长、危害重、防治难的特点，给灾后重建和灾区人民造成极大危害。据初步统计，“5•12”震区44个重灾县（市）发育有潜在泥石流沟836条，其中潜在的巨型泥石流沟90条、大型泥石流沟91条、中型泥石流沟300条、小型泥石流沟355条。威胁到不同规模的城镇或乡镇近百个[1]。
震后泥石流的物源调查、运动规律、成因机理、起动模式以及排导槽耐冲刷抗磨蚀等方面，国内外学者进行了大量研究，著作颇丰[2 − 5]。泥石流物源是泥石流形成的三大条件之一，震后沟道内泥石流物源总储量异常丰富，动储量逐年增加，泥石流暴发临界降雨量显著降低，暴发频率增强，沟道内物源储量与冲出固体量存在幂函数关系[6 − 9]。乔建平等[10]将汶川地震灾区的泥石流物源分为三种类型。赵松江等[11]认为震后泥石流物源类型及特征与常规泥石流有较大差别，并将九寨沟地震后泥石流物源分为崩滑型、沟道冲刷型和坡面侵蚀型物源。泥石流运动规律、成因机理复杂，起动模式多样。前人研究将起动模式主要归纳为“归流拉槽、深切揭底、堵塞溃决”三种孕灾模式[12 − 14]。
泥石流作为一种多相混合介质，运动过程非常复杂，随着数值计算方法和物理计算模型的发展，数值模拟方法在探究泥石流运动模式方面得到广泛应用。陈多鸿[15]利用基于SPH-DEM-FEM耦合的三维泥石流动力过程进行模拟研究，论证了耦合数值分析方法用于泥石流动力过程模拟的合理性。杨帆[16]利用泥石流冲击工程结构动力过程的三维流固耦合数值分析方法，验证了数值方法在泥石流冲击力研究方面的适用性和合理性。张福红[17]通过基于GPU加速的SPH方法溃坝水流数值模拟研究，得到梯形障碍物块体消能效果最好，消能效率为14.154%。Gregorio等[18]利用CA模型对泥石流、滑坡等复杂自然灾害系统的演变过程进行了深入研究, 刘亚敏[19]利用元胞自动机模型建立突发自然灾害模拟与预警系统,对于灾害的防治工作具有极大的应用价值。赵莉等[20]在元胞自动机模型研究中指出，元胞自动机在多个领域的研究成果证明其有广阔的研究领域和重要实践意义。
近年来，全球范围内高位隐蔽滑坡型泥石流链式灾害造成多起群死群伤事件和重大经济损失，多位学者对其进行大量研究，并建立早期识别方法，探讨分布特征、变化趋势及防治措施。通过对金沙江白格滑坡及茂县叠溪镇新磨村等高位滑坡进行分析，提出对高位隐患应早期识别和提前发现，尽快推广应用现代高精度对地观测技术，对高位崩滑灾害隐患进行主动排查和防范[21 − 27]。殷跃平等[28]通过对高位远程地质灾害研究，揭示了高位滑坡碎屑流势流体链动传递机理，紊流体和犁切体的边界层效应，提出改造高势能碎屑流体的边界层底坡、增大湍流边界层内湍动能的生成与组合障桩前死区范围的消能降险方法。并提出了易灾地质结构孕灾机理、高位远程链灾动力过程和风险防控理论与技术等研究方向。
泥石流治理工程磨蚀损坏是导致治理工程失效的重要原因之一。国内外学者将泥石流治理工程磨蚀损坏后磨蚀形貌分为4类，并得出浆体黏度相同时治理工程磨蚀程度与泥石流固体物质比例呈正相关；固体物质比例相同时，磨蚀程度与浆体黏度呈负相关。构建了泥石流两相冲击力的综合表示式，建立了泥石流冲击时间计算方法，测定了泥石流对大坝护坦的磨蚀程度[29 − 33]。何胜庆等[34]通过对高海拔地区宽级配泥石流冲击拦砂坝试验研究得出，宽级配泥石流容重越小，爬高越大，且拦砂坝的坝前冲击力随宽级配泥石流容重的增大而减小，随沟槽坡度增大而增大，随宽级配泥石流固相最大粒径增大而增大。
综上，震后泥石流的物源、机理、参数、结构等方面，国内外学者进行了大量广泛的研究，但强震区泥石流综合防控技术体系的研究相对较少。强震区泥石流数量多且规模大，区内多数泥石流沟首次治理工程失效，进而开展了数次工程治理。究其原因一是对强震区特大型泥石流成灾机理认识不清，导致震后泥石流首次治理设计缺乏机理分析及针对性；二是对强震区泥石流动力学特征参数计算不准，严重影响治理工程设计安全检算的科学合理性；三是治理方案针对性不强，没有区分泥石流成灾特点，相应的成套防控措施缺乏合理的优化组合。因此强震区部分泥石流沟虽然实施了多次治理工程，尝试不同方案多次维修加固，仍不能有效解决“拦得住、排得走、耐冲刷”的技术难题。
本文在前人大量研究工作基础上，对强震区泥石流综合防控技术体系进行探讨，从勘查设计技术和防控关键技术两部分进行研究，其中防控关键技术主要从三个关键点考虑，即源头控制物源起动，沟道流通区控制流量，沟口控制成灾规模，即通过“起动控源→过程控量→末端控灾”逐级控制，建立强震区泥石流综合防控技术体系。
1. 综合防控技术体系总体框架
强震区特大泥石流综合防控技术体系研究成果，包含勘查设计技术、防控关键技术两部分。勘查设计技术体系在现有规范和勘查技术的基础上增加了国家重点研发计划强震区沟道型泥石流不同成因物源起动模式及动储量评价方法[35]、强震区宽缓与窄陡沟道型泥石流致灾机理及灾害链效应[36 − 37]、强震区宽缓与窄陡沟道型泥石流动力学特征[38 − 39]等课题研究成果，具体包括强震区物源识别、动储量评价、堵塞系数分项取值以及动力学特征参数计算等新的技术方法；防控关键技术部分在传统的固拦排停防治措施基础上增加了强震区高位滑坡型泥石流运动机理模拟及新型拦挡技术[40 − 41]、强震区宽缓与窄陡沟道型泥石流综合防控技术[42]、强震区特大泥石流防控标准化技术体系及示范应用[43]课题研究成果，具体包括承灾库容与资源化清库协调技术方法、多级联调中拦砂坝设计计算及动态清库方法、抗冲击桩-梁自复位结构设计技术、小口径组合桩群主动固源技术、沟道型泥石流拦-导-排结构抗冲击耐磨蚀新技术、沟内固源固床+沟口拦挡停淤+排导的泥石流固源式速排技术、翼型排导槽结构、窄陡沟道型泥石流柔性拦截系统及其设计计算方法以及泥石流淤埋及冲失路段应急通行技术等新的技术方法。最终提出“起动控源-过程控量-末端控灾”的强震区特大泥石流综合防控体系新理念（图1）。
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图 1 综合防控技术体系总体框架图Figure 1. The overall framework of the comprehensive prevention and control technology system2. 综合防控技术体系
2.1 勘查设计技术体系
强震区特大泥石流勘查设计技术方法体系从物源、机理、参数、结构4个方面进行细化分解，梳理形成强震区特大泥石流勘查设计技术方法体系。
物源方面主要问题归纳为物源识别不清、物源量计算不准确、起动机理不清楚等，常规的勘查技术方法包括现场调查、遥感方法调查以及按照现有规范公式计算物源动储量。国家重点研发计划项目提出了高位震裂物源起动机理及动储量计算模型，研发了多源遥感方法的高位震裂物源识别技术等新技术方法[35]。
对强震区泥石流起动模式、成灾机理和致灾机理方面提出了宽缓与窄陡沟道型泥石流孕灾模式和起动机理，构建了强震区级联溃决型泥石流堰塞体失稳判别公式，建立了强震区泥石流堵塞系数分项取值方法[36 − 37]。
对于强震区泥石流建立了多级多点堵溃效应的泥石流流量、流速计算模型，提出了震后泥石流容重修正公式、大块石冲击力计算、坝后冲刷深度计算、磨蚀力计算等泥石流运动参数[38 − 39]。
针对泥石流防治工程结构单一、针对性不强问题，提出了桩基承台高坝、承灾库容与资源化清库协调技术、抗冲击桩-梁自复位结构设计、小口径组合桩群主动固源技术、拦-导-排工程抗冲击耐磨蚀以及泥石流淤埋及冲失路段应急通行技术[40 − 43]等。
2.1.1 典型勘查设计新技术
2.1.1.1 震裂物源识别
强震后泥石流沟域内崩塌、滑坡物源储量十分丰富，泥石流沟域内各类物源在暴雨后会发生不同程度的起动。根据成因不同，常规泥石流物源类型主要包括坡面物源、沟道物源和崩滑物源，而在强震区，除以上物源外，还应考虑由震裂山体演化形成的震裂物源。
研究显示强震区泥石流沟域动储量增大与震裂物源这类特殊物源补给有显著相关性[44]。震裂山体分布特征与地震的峰值加速度（PGA）等值线和断层距呈现高度正相关性，85.48%的灾害点发育于泥石流沟域内，成灾模式分为高速崩滑碎屑流、崩滑铲刮侵蚀型和多点崩滑堵溃型三种灾害链[45]。
国家重点研发计划项目对强震区高位震裂物源识别进行研究。基于现场调查、多源遥感、深度学习、神经网络等方法，提出基于局部阈值与蒙特卡洛模拟的改进二值化分割方法，显著提高了震裂物源识别准确性。结合强震区泥石流高位震裂物源遥感数据特征，在光学遥感影像基础上引入局部阈值二值化方法，避免全局阈值二值化导致的大量震裂物源虚警问题；针对融合地形数据的局部二值化震裂物源识别方法下一些河漫滩、植被区域被误检为震裂物源的情况，分析了误检地物的光学和几何特点，并进一步引入了区域坡度信息、归一化植被指数（normalized difference vegetation index，NDVI）特征及解译地物主轴特征等多特征融合策略，对识别结果展开进一步筛选，提高震裂物源的识别精度；开发了基于深度学习和人工智能的目标检测算法Dyna-head Yolo v3，针对区域遥感影像中可能存在沟道内高位震裂物源进行识别；引入FPN-rUnet分割网络对具体震裂物源区域边界进行语义分割，结合已有研究中回归得到的震裂物源平均厚度和体积估算方法，对震裂物源平均厚度和体积进行估算，为强震区震裂山体物源起动模式及动储量分析提供参考。研究成果应用于北川老县城高位震裂山体物源遥感识别，成功率达84.8%[35]（图2）。
2.1.1.2 堵塞系数分项取值
震后泥石流与常规泥石流的主要区别在于地震触发大量的松散物源，导致泥石流孕灾环境在短时间发生剧烈改变，因而震后泥石流孕灾模式和形成机理与常规泥石流有显著差异。强震区宽缓沟道泥石流频发，因其流量大，总量巨大，常常造成巨大损失。而窄陡沟道泥石流在发育层面其具有流域面积小、流通通道窄、沟道纵坡陡、沟岸纵坡陡等特点，在运动层面其具有产流汇流急、运动堆积急等显著特征，其特征与宽缓沟道泥石流有所不同。地震后泥石流沟道中发育大量的崩塌、滑坡及松散物质堆积体，形成一个或多个潜在堵点，在降雨条件下极易失稳形成溃决型泥石流，堵点会引发泥石流流量放大效应，因此，多级多点堵溃型泥石流造成的危害远大于一般的泥石流。
强震区特大泥石流大型崩滑堆积物源多级多点堵溃效应是制约强震区泥石流科学防治核心机理问题，现有规范给出了沟道堵塞系数取值计算方法，国家重点研发计划项目提出了强震区级联溃决型泥石流堵塞系数计算方法。
$$ {{D}}_{\mathrm{C}}={{D}}_{\mathrm{C}0}+\sum _{{m}=1}^{{n}}(1.2-0.2{m}){{D}}_{\mathrm{C}{m}}\;\;({n}\leqslant 5) $$ (1) 式中：DC——泥石流沟道综合堵塞系数；
DC0——泥石流沟道初始堵塞系数；
DCm——下游至上游的第m级有效堰塞体。
当沟道中存在大于5个有效堰塞体时，取规模较大的5处堰塞体进行计算，其余堰塞体则忽略不计。以沟道内存在5个堰塞体为例，得到典型堰塞体库容组合下的泥石流堵塞系数取值表，见表1，其他堰塞体库容组合的堵塞系数也可按照此表推算。
表 1 不同堰塞体库容组合下的泥石流堵塞系数取值表[46]Table 1. Values of debris flow blockage coefficients under different dam reservoir capacity combinations[46]序号 ⑤堰塞体 ④堰塞体 ③堰塞体 ②堰塞体 ①堰塞体 DC 1 库容组合 × × × × × DC0+DC1 堵塞系数 − − − − DC1 2 库容组合 × × × × √ DC0+DC1+0.8×DC2 堵塞系数 − − − DC2 DC1 3 库容组合 × × × √ × DC0+DC1+0.8×DC2+0.6×DC3 堵塞系数 − − DC3 DC2 DC1 4 库容组合 × √ × × √ DC0+DC1+0.8×DC2+0.6×DC3+0.4×DC4 堵塞系数 DC4 DC3 − DC2 DC1 5 库容组合 √ √ √ √ √ DC0+DC1+0.8×DC2+0.6×DC3+0.4×DC4+0.2×DC5 堵塞系数 DC5 DC4 DC3 DC2 DC1 注：“×”代表该堰塞体为空库，“√”代表该堰塞体为满库，“−”代表该堰塞体为无效堰塞体，不考虑堵塞系数。DC1、DC2、······表示对应堰塞体的堵塞系数。 2.2 综合防控关键技术体系
强震区特大泥石流综合防控关键技术体系通过“起动控源→过程控量→末端控灾”逐级控制，细化了物源控制、过程控制和末端灾害控制三个方面。
2.2.1 起动控源
起动控源主要是泥石流物源控制，体系从震裂物源控制、崩滑物源控制、坡面物源控制以及沟道物源控制四种物源类型进行细化，并针对性地提出了不同物源控制的勘查措施和工程控制措施（图3）。
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图 3 “起动控源”关键技术体系框架图Figure 3. Framework diagram of the key technology system of “Source control at initiation”2.2.2 过程控量
过程控量是从泥石流的起动机理为出发点，按照沟域形态窄陡型和宽缓型，归纳总结了四种主要起动机理，即归流拉槽型、深切揭底型、单点集中堵溃揭底放大型以及多级多点堵溃揭底放大型，并针对每种类型总结提出了防治思路和防治措施，并列举了强震区泥石流沟防治成功典型案例（图4）。
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图 4 “过程控量”关键技术体系框架图Figure 4. Framework diagram of the key technology system of “Quantity control during the process”2.2.3 末端控灾
末端控灾主要按危害对象划分了五种危害类型，即集中居住区、线性工程、重要景观区、其他工矿企业以及沟口主河道，并针对每种危害对象类型提出了末端防治思路及防治措施（图5）。
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图 5 “末端控灾”关键技术体系框架图Figure 5. Framework diagram of the key technology system of “ Disaster control at the end”强震区特大泥石流主体控制思路受末端主河吸纳泥石流排出量能力限制，需要从末端向上游反推，按照施工条件难易程度，首先从沟口末端控制，如果沟口控制量不能满足排放要求，再向上游追索实施施工难度中等的过程控量部分，逐级拦蓄后仍然不能满足末端排放要求的，最后实施施工条件最差的源头起动控制。即：泥石流允许排放量=泥石流一次发生量−拦停量−固源量。
2.2.4 综合防治体系应用案例
2.2.4.1 窄陡型泥石流综合防治体系
窄陡型泥石流沟谷呈V型，具有纵坡陡（大于250‰），沟底宽小于40 m、流域面积一般小于5 km2。泥石流形成主要来源于沟源滑坡、崩塌以及震裂物源。以中小型规模为主，突发性强。沟道上游治理工程施工条件差，主要在下游沟口区采取提高排导能力、停淤拦蓄进行治理。必要时沟道中上游实施物源部位的固源固坡措施（图6）。
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图 6 窄陡型泥石流综合防治体系示意图Figure 6. Schematic diagram of the comprehensive control system for narrow and steep debris flow强震区窄陡型泥石流主要有汶川县烧房沟、瓦窑沟，九寨沟县则查洼沟、下季节海子沟泥石流等。泥石流均属窄陡巨灾型。采用综合防控体系进行工程治理后，多条窄陡型泥石流基本消除了泥石流灾害，治理效果良好。
2.2.4.2 宽缓型泥石流综合防治体系
宽缓型泥石流多呈U型谷，纵坡较缓（小于250‰），沟底宽大于40 m、流域面积一般大于5 km2。主沟物源储量较大，同震滑坡、崩塌点多面广，沟道堆积物丰富，震裂物源普遍发育。沟道发生堵塞溃决、揭底冲刷时易形成特大泥石流，造成主河堵塞，演化成泥石流洪水灾害链。主沟道较宽缓，可以采取拦挡调节清淤工程，控制泥石流规模，使其顺利排入主河进行治理（图7）。
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图 7 宽缓型泥石流综合防治体系示意图Figure 7. Schematic diagram of the comprehensive control system for wide and slow debris flow强震区宽缓型泥石流主要有汶川县锄头沟、红椿沟、七盘沟、银杏坪沟，北川县青林沟、杨家沟，九龙县猪鼻沟等。泥石流近年来多次暴发，均造成重大危害且经过多次工程治理。采用综合防控体系进行工程治理后，泥石流灾害基本得到有效控制，治理工程防灾效果良好。
3. 结论
（1）强震区泥石流暴发持时长、规模大、危害重，传统防治手段效果不佳，缺乏综合防治技术体系。本文从勘查设计技术、防控关键技术2部分建立了强震区特大泥石流综合防控技术体系。
（2）勘查设计技术体系创新性增加了强震区物源识别、动储量评价、堵塞系数分项取值以及动力学特征参数计算等新技术方法。
（3）防控关键技术体系根据泥石流沟谷形态分为窄陡型和宽缓型，统筹考虑沟谷上游、中游、下游特征组合多种防控措施，提出“起动控源-过程控量-末端控灾”的强震区特大泥石流综合防控技术体系。
（4）强震区特大泥石流综合防控技术体系，为强震区泥石流综合防控提供理论依据，也可为非震区泥石流综合防控提供技术参考。
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图 1 综合防控技术体系总体框架图
Figure 1. The overall framework of the comprehensive prevention and control technology system
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图 3 “起动控源”关键技术体系框架图
Figure 3. Framework diagram of the key technology system of “Source control at initiation”
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图 4 “过程控量”关键技术体系框架图
Figure 4. Framework diagram of the key technology system of “Quantity control during the process”
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图 5 “末端控灾”关键技术体系框架图
Figure 5. Framework diagram of the key technology system of “ Disaster control at the end”
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图 6 窄陡型泥石流综合防治体系示意图
Figure 6. Schematic diagram of the comprehensive control system for narrow and steep debris flow
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图 7 宽缓型泥石流综合防治体系示意图
Figure 7. Schematic diagram of the comprehensive control system for wide and slow debris flow
表 1 不同堰塞体库容组合下的泥石流堵塞系数取值表[46]
Table 1 Values of debris flow blockage coefficients under different dam reservoir capacity combinations[46]
序号 ⑤堰塞体 ④堰塞体 ③堰塞体 ②堰塞体 ①堰塞体 DC 1 库容组合 × × × × × DC0+DC1 堵塞系数 − − − − DC1 2 库容组合 × × × × √ DC0+DC1+0.8×DC2 堵塞系数 − − − DC2 DC1 3 库容组合 × × × √ × DC0+DC1+0.8×DC2+0.6×DC3 堵塞系数 − − DC3 DC2 DC1 4 库容组合 × √ × × √ DC0+DC1+0.8×DC2+0.6×DC3+0.4×DC4 堵塞系数 DC4 DC3 − DC2 DC1 5 库容组合 √ √ √ √ √ DC0+DC1+0.8×DC2+0.6×DC3+0.4×DC4+0.2×DC5 堵塞系数 DC5 DC4 DC3 DC2 DC1 注：“×”代表该堰塞体为空库，“√”代表该堰塞体为满库，“−”代表该堰塞体为无效堰塞体，不考虑堵塞系数。DC1、DC2、······表示对应堰塞体的堵塞系数。 
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