ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    地质灾害专业监测预警存在的问题与思考以十堰市为例

    Problems and reflections on professional monitoring and early warning of geological hazards: A case study of Shiyan City

    • 摘要: 研究目的专业监测预警是群专结合地质灾害监测预警体系中的一个重要环节,研究专业监测预警的经验成效和存在问题在当前普适性监测广泛展开的状况下可促进防灾减灾工作发展。研究方法本文通过总结十堰市地质灾害专业监测预警工作经验成效,分析运行维护和建设管理中主要存在的问题,提出改善对策方法。研究结果十堰市自2017年开始地质灾害专业监测预警工作以来,已陆续建成地质灾害专业监测点2 732处。截至2024年底,全市依靠地质灾害专业监测预警体系共实现成功预警36起,紧急避险19次共计190人,避免财产损失22 621.83万元。十堰市专业监测预警运行维护方面主要存在设备稳定在线率偏低、有效预警少误报率偏高、预警模型与预警判据针对性不强、部分监测设施选址或保护不当等问题,建设管理方面主要存在超期服役设备运维管理工作难度大、缺乏统一的监测数据解算平台、有效而全面的监测预警手段不足、部分单点建设费用偏低等问题。结论十堰市地质灾害专业监测预警运行维护中主要存在的问题可通过及时维护设备、筛选监测单位和设备厂商、研发建立区域性预警模型与判据、定期维护设施和加强宣传教育等方法进行改善,建设管理中主要存在的问题可通过提前进行改建项目谋划、构建市级解算平台、引入新技术新方法、适当追加建设资金等方法进行改善。

       

      Abstract: Research purposes Professional monitoring and early warning is a key component of the integrated geological hazard monitoring and early warning system that combines both community-based and professional efforts. Studying the effectiveness and existing issues of such systems is crucial for advancing disaster prevention and mitigation, especially in the current context of widespread generalized monitoring. Research Methods This paper reviews the implementation experiences and outcomes of professional geological hazard monitoring and early warning in Shiyan City. It analyzes the main problems in system operation, maintenance, and construction management, and proposes targeted countermeasures for improvement. Research results Since launching its professional monitoring and early warning efforts in 2017, Shiyan City has successively established 2,732 professional monitoring points. By the end of 2024, these systems had successfully issued 36 early warnings, supported 19 emergency evacuations involving a total of 190 people, and helped avert property losses amounting to 226.2183 million yuan. Key challenges in system operation and maintenance includes a low equipment online rate, relatively few effective early warnings, a high false alarm rate, limited capacity of early warning models and criterion, and improper siting or inadequate protection of some monitoring facilities. In terms of construction and management, issues include difficulties in maintaining aging equipment, lack of a unified data processing platform, insufficient comprehensive monitoring and early warning techniques, and underfunded single-point construction projects. Conclusion Operational challenges can be mitigated through timely equipment maintenance, careful selection of monitoring units and equipment manufacturers, development of regional-specific early warning models and criteria, regular upkeep of facilities, and enhanced public awareness and education. Construction and management shortcomings can be improved by planning reconstruction projects in advance, building a centralized data processing platform, adopting new technologies, and appropriately increasing financial investment.

       

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