ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于FLO-2D的甘肃岷县扎龙沟泥石流灾害风险评价

    Risk assessment of debris flow disaster in Zhalong gully, Minxian County, Gansu Province based on the FLO-2D model

    • 摘要: 泥石流灾害因其突发性与破坏性严重威胁人类社会安全及生态平衡。甘肃岷县扎龙沟泥石流灾害频发,亟须对该泥石流灾害进行防范预警。研究基于FLO-2D数值模拟模型,选取10年一遇、20年一遇、50年一遇的降雨强度数据,结合高精度数字高程模型(DEM)和实地调查确定的泥石流相关参数,模拟不同降雨重现期下泥石流的运动过程(流速、流深及堆积范围),并开展灾害危险性分区。选取泥石流影响范围内的建筑物、道路、土地3种承灾体进行易损性评价,结合风险评价模型生成风险区划图。结果表明:随着降雨强度增加,泥石流的峰值流量、流速和流深等数值显著上升,50年一遇降雨强度时危险性最高。高危险区集中于下游堆积区,降雨强度增加使低风险区建筑面临更高风险。研究成果对泥石流灾害的防范预警和风险管控具有重要意义,同时为后续开展精准化定量风险评估方法研究奠定了基础。

       

      Abstract: Debris flows pose a serious threaten to human safety and ecological stability due to their sudden onset and destructive power. Zhalong gully in Min County, Gansu Province, is prone to frequent debris flow events, highlighting the need for disaster prevention and early warning. Based on the FLO-2D numerical simulation model, rainfall intensity data with return periods of 10 a, 20 a, and 50 a were selected. Combined with a high-precision digital elevation model (DEM) and debris flow parameters determined by field investigation, the movement process of debris flow (flow velocity, flow depth, and range) under different rainfall return periods was simulated, and disaster risk zoning was conducted. Buildings, roads, and land within the affected area were selected for vulnerability assessment, and a risk zoning map was generated by combining the results with a risk assessment model. With the increase of rainfall intensity, the peak flow, flow velocity, and flow depth of debris flow increased significantly, and the hazard was the highest under the 50 a return period rainfall. High-risk areas were concentrated in downstream accumulation zones, and the increase in rainfall intensity raised the risk for buildings in low-risk areas. The results of this study are of great significance for debris flow disaster prevention, early warning, and risk management, and provide a foundation for subsequent research on precise and quantitative risk assessment methods.

       

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