ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    兰成渝成品油管道地质灾害发育特征及风险评价

    Development characteristics and risk assessment of geological hazards along the Lan-Cheng-Yu refined oil pipeline based on machine learning

    • 摘要: 以兰成渝成品油管道途径区域为研究对象,基于实际调查编录的管道沿线地质灾害点,分析管道沿线地质灾害发育特征,从地形地貌、地质环境、水文条件和生态环境四个方面选取了高程、坡度、剖面曲率、工程岩组、距离断层的距离、水系、年均降雨量、植被覆盖率、土地利用类型及地质峰值加速度等10个评价因子,利用信息量模型和BP神经网络,获取不同模型下管道沿线的地质灾害易发性分区,最后结合地质灾害隐患点风险等级和发育密度进行管道沿线的风险性评价。结果表明:管道沿线灾害类型为水毁类为主,主要分布于甘肃省陇南市;坡度、地层岩性、距断层的距离及水系是影响地质灾害发育的主要因子;管道沿线无高风险段,较高、中、较、低风险段各占管道全长21.8%、6.9%、15.7% 以及55.6%。基于信息量+神经网络模型的AUC=0.936,高、较高易发区的地质灾害隐患点总占比为71.2%。说明信息量+神经网络模型更适合本区域的地质灾害易发性评价。研究结果对兰成渝成品油管道的长期安全运营和防灾减灾具有重要指导作用,同时也为其他管道的地质灾害风险评价提供了有益的参考和借鉴。

       

      Abstract: Abstrac: This study focuses on the region along the Lanzhou-Chengdu-Chongqing (Lan-cheng-yu) refined oil pipeline, analyzing the development characteristics of geological hazards based on field-surveyed disaster points along the pipeline. The analysis considers ten evaluation factors across four aspects: from topography, geological environment, hydrological conditions, and ecological environment. These factors include elevation, slope, profile curvature, engineering rock group, distance from faults, water systems, annual rainfall, vegetation cover, land use types, and geological peak ground acceleration. By utilizing an information model and BP neural network, the study identifies the susceptibility zoning of geological hazards along the pipeline for different models. Subsequently, the risk assessment is then conducted based on the risk level and development density of geological hazard hidden points along the pipeline. The types of disasters along the pipeline are primarily water-induced, mainly distributed in Longnan City, Gansu Province. Slope gradient, rock type of the strata, distance to faults, and the drainage system are the main factors affecting the development of geological disasters. There are no high-risk sections along the pipeline, with high, moderate, low, and very low-risk sections accounting for 21.8%, 6.9%, 15.7%, and 55.6% of the total pipeline length, respectively. The AUC value of 0.936 for the information model + neural network approach shows that 71.2% of the hazard points fall within high and relatively high susceptibility zones, suggesting that this combined model is more suitable for evaluating geological hazard susceptibility in this area. The research results provide valuable guidance for ensuring the long-term safe operation and enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation efforts of the Lan-Cheng-Yu refined oil pipeline. Additionally, they provide a beneficial reference and example for conducting geological disaster risk assessments for other pipelines.

       

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