ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于GWR-RF模型的四川省巴中地区滑坡易发性评价

    Landslide susceptibility assessment in the bazhong area, sichuan province, based on gwr-rf model

    • 摘要: 四川省巴中地区地层岩性以红层岩体为主,由于红层岩体特殊的地质构造和岩性组合,在降雨作用下该区域易发生滑坡灾害,而滑坡易发性评价能有效降低灾害风险,减少经济损失。本文以四川省巴中地区为研究对象,选取高程、相对高差、历年平均降雨等11个影响因子,建立地理加权回归-随机森林(GWR-RF)耦合模型以优化斜坡单元负样本采样策略,并将评估结果与多次全域随机采样策略进行对比。结果表明:(1)全域随机采样会导致易发性评价结果存在较大差异,且评估结果准确率较差,全域随机采样不适用于以斜坡单元为基础的滑坡易发性评价;(2)GWR-RF耦合模型的滑坡易发性存在空间差异,主要分布于研究区的恩阳区、巴州区、平昌县,以及南江县中~南部,该模型从滑坡斜坡单元面积占比最小的区域中进行随机取样,有效优化了斜坡单元的负样本取样策略,从而提高了预测模型的可靠性和稳定性。

       

      Abstract: In the Bazhong area, Sichuan Province, China, the predominant lithology red bed rock mass exhibits unique geological structures and lithological compositions that heighten its susceptibility to landslides during rainfall. Assessing landslide susceptibility in this region is an effective measure for mitigating disaster risks and minimizing economic losses. This study, focuses on Bazhong city as the research area, incorporates eleven conditioning factors including elevation, relief, and annual average rainfall to develop a geographically weighted regression - random forest (GWR-RF) coupling model. This model optimize the negative sampling strategy by comparing it against traditional random sampling across the entire area. The results indicate the following: (1) Random sampling from the entire area leads to significant disparities in susceptibility assessments, accompanied by a relatively diminished accuracy, rendering it unsuitable for slope unit-based assessments. (2) The coupled GWR-RF model demonstrates spatial variations in landslide susceptibility, predominantly distributing in the Enyang, Bazhou, Pingchang counties, and the central - southern region of Nanjiang county. By performing random sampling within areas with the lowest proportion of landslide-prone slope units, this model effectively optimizing the negative sample sampling strategy for slope units, thereby enhancing the reliability and robustness of the predictive model.

       

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