ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    低山丘陵区公路地质灾害气象预报模型对比及应用以江西山区公路为例

    Comparison and application on meteorological forecast models of geological hazards for highways in low mountain and hilly area: A case study along the highways in Jiangxi Province

    • 摘要: 为更好地开展道路地质灾害预报预警,减轻强降雨对山区高速行车安全的影响,文章利用国家气象站观测雨量数据结合江西省高速公路沿线交通气象站观测数据,在对高速公路沿线地质环境条件和雨量特征进行分析的基础上,结合支持向量机SVM、逻辑回归、K近邻和随机森林4种机器学习方法,开展山区公路地质灾害预报建模和预警试验。结果表明:(1)江西高速公路沿线地质灾害所处的海拔高度以300~450m最多;灾害坡度以20°~35°居多,随地形坡度增加呈现单峰型分布;河网密集和有一定的植被覆盖地区更容易发生地质灾害。(2)提出了诱发公路地质灾害的3种主要降雨类型,分别为长历时降雨、短期降雨和短时降雨。(3)对比分析4种地质灾害机器学习方法,就降雨诱发的地质灾害而言,4种预报模型的准确率均超过0.75,进一步通过分型研究对比发现逻辑回归和随机森林模型在长历时和短时降雨中预报准确率较高,K近邻方法对于短期降雨预报效果较好。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve the prediction and early warning of road geological hazards and mitigate the impact of heavy rainfall on the safety of high-speed driving in mountainous areas, this paper combines precipitation data from national meteorological stations with data from traffic meteorological stations along highways in Jiangxi Province. Based on the analysis of the geological environment conditions and rainfall characteristics along the highways, four machine learning methods including Support Vector Machine (SVM), logical regression, K neighbors and random forest were adopted to do research on the highway geological disaster forecast modeling and early warning test. The results show that: (1) The majority of geological disasters along Jiangxi highways are located at altitudes of 300 to 450 meters, with slope gradients mostly ranging from 20° to 35°. As terrain slope increases, a unimodal distribution of hazards is observed. Regions with dense river networks and certain vegetation coverage are more prone to experiencing geological hazards. (2) Three main types of rainfall inducing highway geological hazards are identified: long-term rainfall, short-term rainfall, and short-time rainfall. (3) Comparative assessment of four kinds of geological hazard machine learning methods dedicated to geological disasters demonstrates that, for rainfall-induced geological hazards, all four predictive models achieve accuracies exceeding 0.75. Further study found that the logistic regression and random forest model outperform others in forecasting accuracy for both long and short rainfall periods, while the K-neighbor approach was better for short-term rainfall forecast.

       

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