ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于信息量、加权信息量与逻辑回归耦合模型的云南罗平县崩滑灾害易发性评价对比分析

    Comparative analyses of susceptibility assessment for landslide disasters based on information value, weighted information value and logistic regression coupled model in Luoping County, Yunnan Province

    • 摘要: 以罗平县崩滑地质灾害为研究对象,选取工程岩组、坡度、坡向、高程、起伏度、曲率、地貌类型、距河流距离、距断裂距离9个评价因子,基于共线性诊断和相关性分析对其进行独立性检验。然后采用信息量法计算各评价因子分类分级的信息量值,采用层次分析法和逻辑回归法对各评价因子进行权重的定量计算,从而构建信息量、加权信息量和信息量-逻辑回归耦合易发性评价模型并进行对比分析。基于GIS的自然断点法将评价结果划分为非、低、中和高4个等级,并采用ROC曲线对其精度进行检验。结果表明:3种评价模型的AUC值分别为0.757、0.723和0.852,信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型的精度最高,模型结果分区与崩滑地质灾害点的分布较吻合,其非、低、中和高的面积(分级比)分别为771.1 km2(25.55%)、836.6 km2(27.73%)、864.36 km2(28.64%)和545.94 km2(18.08%)。

       

      Abstract: This study focuses on landslide susceptibility assessments in Luoping County, where 9 evaluation factors, including engineering rock group, slope, slope aspect, elevation, undulation, curvature, landform type, distance from rivers, and distance from fault, were selected as the research variables. After conducting collinearity diagnosis and correlation analysis, the information value method was applied to calculate the information value for each classification level of the evaluation factors. Quantitative weights for each evaluation factor were determined using the AHP and logistic regression methods, leading to the construction and comparison of three susceptibility evaluation models: information value, and weighted information value, and information-logistic regression coupled model. The results were categorized into four grades -- none, low, medium, and high – using the GIS-based natural breakpoint method, and their accuracy was validated using ROC curves. The results show that the AUC values of the three evaluation models were 0.757, 0.723 and 0.852 respectively, with the information-logistic regression coupled model demonstrating the highest accuracy. Moreover, the model results were in good agreement with the distribution of landslide geological disaster points. The respective areas (classification ratios) for the none, low, medium, and high categories were 771.1 km2 (25.55%), 836.6 km2 (27.73%), 864.36 km2 (28.64%), and 545.94 km2 (18.08%).

       

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