ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    江苏南京地质灾害风险评价

    Risk assessment of geological disasters in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province

    • 摘要: 地质灾害风险评价是地质灾害风险管控的支撑与依据,对于科学防治地质灾害具有重要意义。以江苏南京为研究区,选取历史灾害点密度等影响因子开展易发性评价,以降雨量作为诱发因素开展危险性评价,结合承灾体易损性,分析划定地质灾害高、中、低三类风险区。结果表明:高风险区主要集中在沿江的老山、幕府山、紫金山、栖霞山以及青龙山等部分人员聚居的山前坡麓一带,面积51.3 km2,占比0.8%;中风险区主要集中在低山丘陵中人员较集中的区域,面积371.9 km2,占比5.6%;低风险区分布较广,位于其余低山丘陵岗地,面积1740.1 km2,占比26.4%。研究成果可有效支撑当地地质灾害防灾减灾以及国土空间规划应用。

       

      Abstract: Geological disaster risk assessment serves as a crucial foundation for the risk management and control of such risks, playing a significant role in the scientific prevention and control of geological disasters. This study focuses on Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, and employs historical disaster point density and other influencing factors to evaluate the susceptibility of geological disasters. Rainfall is utilized as the triggering factor for conducting probability assessments. By considering the comprehensive vulnerability of the affected areas, the study analyzes and defines the high, medium, and low-risk zones for geological disasters. The findings reveal that high-risk zone primarily concentrates on populated piedmont slopes, including Laoshan, Mufu Mountain, Zijin Mountain, Qixia Mountain, and Qinglong Mountain, covering an area of 51.3 km2, accounting for 0.8% of the total area. Medium-risk zone is mainly located in areas with relatively concentrated populations in low mountains and hills, covering an area of 371.9 km2, accounting for 5.6% of the total area. Low-risk zone is more widely distributed, occupying the remaining low mountains and hills, covering an area of 1740.1 km2, accounting for 26.4% of the total area. The research results can effectively support disaster prevention, mitigation efforts related to geological disasters, and contribute to land space planning.

       

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