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基于沟域单元的康定市泥石流易发性评价

王峰, 杨帆, 江忠荣, 吴鄂, 汪冠

王峰,杨帆,江忠荣,等. 基于沟域单元的康定市泥石流易发性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(3): 145-156. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202205038
引用本文: 王峰,杨帆,江忠荣,等. 基于沟域单元的康定市泥石流易发性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(3): 145-156. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202205038
WANG Feng,YANG Fan,JIANG Zhongrong,et al. Susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on watershed units in Kangding City, Sichuan Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(3): 145-156. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202205038
Citation: WANG Feng,YANG Fan,JIANG Zhongrong,et al. Susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on watershed units in Kangding City, Sichuan Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(3): 145-156. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202205038

基于沟域单元的康定市泥石流易发性评价

详细信息
    作者简介:

    王 峰(1990-),男,四川苍溪人,硕士,工程师,主要从事地质灾害风险评价研究。E-mail:wf_cdut@sina.com

  • 中图分类号: P642.23

Susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on watershed units in Kangding City, Sichuan Province

Funds: Huadi Construction Project Incorporated Company, Chengdu ,Sichuan 610081, China;
  • 摘要: 为研究康定市泥石流易发性,将康定市划分为421个沟域单元,采用ArcGIS软件中空间分析工具以及SPSS软件分别对评价指标内部叠加情况、评价指标与泥石流灾害相关性进行了分析,通过筛除剔除重叠度高、相关性差的评价因子,选取流域面积、melton比率、形状系数比、流域崩滑密度、流域植被覆盖率、流域道路密度、流域平均径流侵蚀力指数、多年汛期平均降雨量等8个评价指标进行康定市泥石流地质灾害易发性评价。采用信息量模型与熵值法相结合的方法定量评价了泥石流易发性,熵值法定量确定了评价指标权重,计算出评价因子加权信息量值,将康定市泥石流划分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区以及低易发区4个等级。通过频率比模型、受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)对泥石流易发性评价结果进行检验,ROC曲线AUC值为0.842,表明评价模型精度较高。
    Abstract: To study the susceptibility of debris flow in Kangding City, the study area was divided into 421 watershed units. Spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS software and SPSS software were used to analyze the internal superposition of evaluation indicators and the correlation between evaluation indicators and debris flows disasters. By screening out the evaluation factors with a high degree of overlap and poor correlation, eight evaluation factors were selected for debris flow susceptibility assessment. These included watershed unit area, melton rate, form factor ratio, collapse and landslides density of catchment, average fractional vegetation cover of catchment, road density of catchment, average stream power index of catchment, and average rainfall during the multi-year flood season. The susceptibility of debris flow was quantitatively evaluated by combining the information value model and the entropy method. The weights of the evaluation indicators were quantitatively determined by the entropy method, and the evaluation factor weighted information quantity value was calculated. Based on this, the debris flow susceptibility in Kangding City was divided into four grades: extremely high, high, medium and low. The results of debris flow susceptibility assessment were tested using the frequency ratio model and the Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, with an AUC curve of 0.842, indicating high accuracy of the evaluation model.
  • 图  1   康定市泥石流分布图

    Figure  1.   Distribution map of debris flow in Kangding City

    图  2   康定市沟域单元划分图

    Figure  2.   Watershed units division map of Kangding City

    图  3   评价指标体系图

    Figure  3.   Evaluation factors system chart

    图  4   评价因子与泥石流关系统计图

    Figure  4.   Statistical diagram of the relationship between evaluation factors and debris flow

    图  5   沟域单元评价因子分级图

    Figure  5.   Classification diagram of evaluation factors of watershed units

    图  6   康定市泥石流易发性评价图

    Figure  6.   Susceptibility evaluation map of the debris flow in Kangding City

    图  7   泥石流易发性评价模型ROC曲线

    Figure  7.   ROC curve of the debris flow susceptibility assessment model

    表  1   数据来源和数据类型

    Table  1   Sources and types of data

    基础数据 数据来源 数据格式
    DEM 县域1∶5万DLG 栅格
    交通、水系 县域1∶5万DLG 矢量
    地层、构造 县域1∶5万区域地质图 矢量
    降雨 康定市气象局 矢量
    地震加速度 地震数据来自中国地震信息网( http://www.csi.ac.cn/publish/main/837/1077/index.html)的1∶400万中国地震动峰值加速度区划图 矢量
    Landsat8 数据 来源美国地质调查局( landsatlook.usgs.gov) ,计算植被覆盖度 多波段栅
    格数据
    历史泥石流灾害点 《康定市地质灾害风险调查评价报告》 矢量
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2   评价指标内部相关性系数

    Table  2   Internal correlation coefficients of evaluation factors

    指标 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
    A 1                            
    B −0.13 1                          
    C 0.22 0.72 1                        
    D −0.62 0.56 0.31 1                      
    E −0.60 0.65 0.42 0.88 1                    
    F −0.25 −0.03 −0.14 0.48 0.05 1                  
    G −0.09 −0.13 −0.20 −0.13 0.01 −0.24 1                
    H 0.00 −0.40 −0.51 −0.23 −0.31 0.08 0.05 1              
    I −0.08 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.08 −0.02 0.21 −0.18 1            
    J −0.26 0.32 0.31 0.35 0.16 −0.09 0.27 −0.31 0.32 1          
    K −0.08 0.40 0.24 0.19 0.24 −0.06 0.26 −0.25 0.21 0.25 1        
    L −0.02 −0.15 −0.15 −0.07 −0.05 −0.04 0.26 0.01 0.10 0.25 0.21 1      
    M −0.12 −0.06 0.11 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.01 −0.33 −0.05 0.13 0.07 0.06 1    
    N 0.15 −0.16 0.16 −0.52 −0.49 −0.23 −0.01 −0.10 0.01 −0.12 −0.01 0.04 −0.01 1  
    O 0.02 −0.33 −0.16 −0.12 −0.12 −0.03 0.26 −0.19 −0.03 −0.01 0.00 0.18 0.20 0.05 1
      注:表中A为流域面积;B为流域平均坡度;C为流域地形起伏度;D为沟道纵坡降;E为melton比率;F为形状系数比;G为流域沟壑密度;H为工程地质岩组;I为流域断层密度;J为流域崩滑密度;KNDVIL为流域道路密度;MPGANSPIO为多年汛期平均降雨量。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3   评价指标与泥石流相关性

    Table  3   The correlation between evaluation factors and debris flow

    自变量 因变量Y
    spearman相关系数 显著性
    X1 −0.247** 0.000
    X2 0.221** 0.000
    X3 −0.166** 0.001
    X4 0.038 0.438
    X5 −0.026 0.596
    X6 0.009 0.858
    X7 0.396** 0.000
    X8 0.180** 0.000
    X9 0.378** 0.000
    X10 0.031 0.520
    X11 −0.187** 0.000
    X12 0.165** 0.001
      注:表中Y为泥石流是否发生,X1为流域面积,X2为melton比率,X3为形状系数比,X4为流域沟壑密度,X5为工程地质岩组,X6为流域断层密度,X7为流域崩滑密度,X8为流域植被覆盖率(NDVI),X9为流域道路密度,X10为地震动峰值加速度(PGA),X11为流域平均径流侵蚀力指数(SPI),X12为多年汛期平均降雨量。**,在置信度(双侧)为0.01时,相关性是显著的。*,在置信度(双侧)为0.05时,相关性是显著的。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4   评价指标权重及加权信息量值

    Table  4   Evaluation factors weights and its weighted information value

    因子分类 一级评价因子 序号 二级评价因子 泥石流
    数量/个
    沟域单元
    个数/个
    泥石流密度/
    (个·km−2
    信息量值 权重 加权信息量值
    地形条件 流域面积/km2 1 <0.2 5 7 477.55 1.1418 0.1120 0.1279
    2 0.2~5 50 134 14.65 0.4925 0.0552
    3 5~10 9 84 1.5 −0.7553 −0.0846
    4 10~50 31 171 0.79 −0.2294 −0.0257
    5 >50 1 25 0.06 −1.7406 −0.1949
    melton比率 1 <0.3 7 57 0.32 −0.6189 0.0780 −0.0483
    2 0.3~0.5 17 98 0.7 −0.2735 −0.0213
    3 0.5~0.7 17 106 1.33 −0.3519 −0.0275
    4 0.7~1 26 104 4.2 0.0920 0.0072
    5 >1 29 56 27.28 0.8202 0.0640
    形状系数比 1 <0.25 19 90 1.44 −0.0771 0.0880 −0.0068
    2 0.25~0.4 29 163 1 −0.2482 −0.0218
    3 0.4~0.7 30 135 1.45 −0.0258 −0.0023
    4 0.7~1.2 13 25 5.53 0.8244 0.0725
    5 >1.2 5 8 8.09 1.0083 0.0887
    物源条件 流域崩滑密度/(处·km−2 1 0~0.02 13 157 0.4 −1.0130 0.1820 −0.1844
    2 0.02~0.05 17 107 1.02 −0.3613 −0.0658
    3 0.05~0.08 15 57 2 0.1433 0.0261
    4 0.08~0.11 17 36 3.6 0.7280 0.1325
    5 >0.11 34 64 7.11 0.8458 0.1539
    NDVI 1 0~0.15 16 131 0.91 −0.6243 0.0970 −0.0606
    2 0.15~0.25 19 87 1.09 −0.0432 −0.0042
    3 0.25~0.35 22 71 1.56 0.3066 0.0297
    4 0.35~0.5 22 62 2.18 0.4422 0.0429
    5 >0.5 17 70 2.55 0.0630 0.0061
    流域道路密度/(km·km−2 1 0~0.16 32 253 0.82 −0.5894 0.2120 −0.1249
    2 0.16~0.52 19 76 1.21 0.0920 0.0195
    3 0.52~1.05 23 57 2.86 0.5707 0.1210
    4 1.05~1.8 5 13 3.44 0.5228 0.1108
    5 >1.8 17 22 10.62 1.2205 0.2587
    SPI 1 <2.25 29 144 5.1 −0.1242 0.0690 −0.0086
    2 2.25~2.75 17 118 1.07 −0.4592 −0.0317
    3 2.75~3.2 20 81 1.13 0.0796 0.0055
    4 3.2~3.7 14 37 1.46 0.5064 0.0349
    5 >3.7 16 41 0.94 0.5373 0.0371
    水源条件 多年汛期平均降雨量/mm 1 <470 11 69 1.11 −0.3579 0.1620 −0.0580
    2 470~520 25 145 1.04 −0.2796 −0.0453
    3 520~580 26 112 1.54 0.0179 0.0029
    4 580~660 16 48 1.94 0.3797 0.0615
    5 >660 18 47 2.63 0.5185 0.0840
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5   泥石流易发性评价结果统计表

    Table  5   Statistical table of debris flow susceptibility evaluation results

    易发性等级 面积/km2 面积
    百分比/%
    泥石流点
    数量/个
    泥石流
    百分比/%
    频率比
    极高易发区 528.85 4.56 49 51.04 11.19
    高易发区 1597.19 13.78 31 32.29 2.34
    中易发区 1988.87 17.16 12 12.50 0.73
    低易发区 7476.75 64.50 4 4.17 0.06
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-05-24
  • 修回日期:  2022-08-17
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-06-05
  • 刊出日期:  2023-06-24

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