ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于深度神经网络模型的雅安市滑坡易发性评价

    Evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Ya’an City based on depth neural network model

    • 摘要: 准确的滑坡易发性评价结果是滑坡风险评估的基础,对防灾减灾工作有着重要的意义。文章以雅安市为研究区,在野外地质调查的基础上,选取高程、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、剖面曲率、地形湿度指数、泥沙输运指数、径流强度指数、归一化植被指数、年均降雨量、地震动峰值加速度、地形起伏度、距断层距离、地层岩性、距河流距离、距道路距离等16个因子,构建研究区滑坡易发性评价指标体系,采用度神经网深络(DNN)模型进行滑坡易发性评价,根据易发性指数将研究区划分为极高易发区(12.2%)、高易发区(7.0%)、中易发区(9.8%)、低易发区(17.0%)、极低易发区(54.1%)五个等级,并与人工神经网络(ANN)模型进行对比,用ROC曲线的AUC值进行精度检验。结果表明,DNN模型的评价精度AUC(0.99)大于ANN(0.96)模型。因此,相比ANN模型,DNN模型在该研究区有着更好的拟合能力和预测能力,滑坡极高和高易发区主要分布于雅安市人类工程活动强烈的低海拔地区,沿着道路和水系分布,距道路距离、高程、年均降雨量是影响雅安滑坡发育的主要影响因子。

       

      Abstract: Accurate evaluation of landslide susceptibility results are the basis of landslide risk assessment and are of great significance to disaster prevention and reduction. This paper focuses on Ya’an City as the study area and selects various factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, plane curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, runoff intensity index, normalized difference vegetation index, annual rainfall, peak ground acceleration, topographic relief, distance from fault, stratum lithology, distance from river, and distance from road, to construct a landslide susceptibility evaluation index system. Based on field geological survey data, a deep neural network model is used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility. The study area is classified into five categories based on susceptibility index, including landslide extremely high-prone area (12.2%), landslide high-prone area (7.0%), landslide moderate-prone area (9.8%), landslide low-prone area (17.0%) and landslide extremely low-prone area (54.1%). The accuracy of the DNN model was tested with an AUC value and compared to the artificial neural network (ANN) model. The results show that the DNN model has a higher evaluation accuracy AUC (0.99) compared to ANN (0.96). Thus, the DNN model has a better fitting degree and prediction ability in the study area than the ANN model. The extremely high-prone area and high-prone area of landslides are primarily distributed in the low altitude areas with significant human engineering activities in Ya’an City, along the roads and water systems. The main control factors affecting the development of Ya’an landslide are distance from the road, elevation and annual average rainfall.

       

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