ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    滑坡多发区第四系堆积层厚度智能预测与影响因素分析以重庆万州铁峰乡为例

    Intelligent prediction and analysis of influencing factors of Quaternary accumulation layer thickness in landslide-prone areas: A case study in the Tiefeng area of Wanzhou District, Chongqing City

    • 摘要: 堆积层厚度是区域工程地质调查的基础数据,对识别滑坡具有重要意义,在滑坡的稳定性评价和风险评估中发挥着重要的作用。传统的空间插值方法对外界因素考虑不足,难以满足精度要求。文章以三峡库区万州区铁峰乡为研究对象,在实地调查的基础上,总结提出了堆积层的成因模式,并据此添加区域堆积层厚度控制点;基于Apriori算法挖掘影响因子与堆积层厚度分布之间的关联准则,利用已知样本点采用三种机器学习方法建立模型,最后将模型应用于整个区域得到堆积层厚度分布图,并对结果进行对比分析。结果表明:选取的13种影响因子中6种因子与堆积层厚度表现出较强的相关性;数据挖掘显示坡度和地形起伏是影响堆积层厚度空间分布差异的主要因素。3种机器学习模型中GWO-SVM模型的预测结果与实际最为吻合。研究结果揭示了区域第四系堆积层的成因机制,为机器学习技术在堆积层厚度预测领域奠定了基础。

       

      Abstract: Accumulation layer thickness is the basic data of regional engineering geological investigation, which is of great significance to identifying landslides and plays an important role in landslide stability evaluation and risk assessment. The traditional interpolation method does not take into account external factors, and it is difficult to meet the accuracy requirements. This study takes the Tiefeng Township of Wanzhou District in the Three Gorges Reservoir as the research object, summarizing the formation model of the accumulation layer and regional accumulation layer thickness control points are added accordingly. The Apriori algorithm is used to mine the association rules between the influence factors and the thickness distribution of accumulation layers. Three machine learning methods are used to build the model by using the known sample points, which are applied to the entire area to obtain the thickness distribution map of the accumulation layer, then compare the results. Results show that 6 of the 13 selected influence factors have a strong correlation with the accumulation layer thickness, and slope and topographic undulation are the main factors that cause the difference in the spatial distribution of accumulation layer thickness. Among the three machine learning methods, the prediction result of the GWO-SVM model is the most consistent with the actual situation. The results reveal the formation mechanism of regional quaternary accumulation layer and lay a foundation for machine learning in the field of accumulation layer thickness prediction.

       

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