ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    气候变化与地质灾害风险防控:降雨触发型地质灾害研究进展

    Climate Change and Geological Hazard Risk Prevention and Control: Research Progress on Rainfall-Triggered Geological Hazards

    • 摘要: 气候变化正在深刻改变极端降雨格局、山区水文过程和地质灾害风险结构,降雨触发型滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害呈现出群发性增强、链生过程复杂、风险外溢显著和防控难度加大的新特征。传统以隐患点排查、经验阈值预警和灾后工程治理为主的地质灾害防治模式,已难以充分适应气候变化背景下“暴雨—洪水—山洪—滑坡—泥石流—交通中断—应急受阻”的复合链生风险。本文旨在系统梳理气候变化背景下降雨触发型地质灾害研究进展,凝练其风险演化特征、机理认识、模型方法和防控路径。围绕极端降雨诱发地质灾害这一核心问题,从气候变化与极端降雨背景、降雨触发型地质灾害风险演化、事件型滑坡数据库与形成机理、危险性评价与智能预测、灾害链监测预警与风险防控等方面,对国内外相关研究进行综述分析,重点总结我国在强降雨群发滑坡、泥石流风险预测、极端降雨灾害链和应急风险防控等方面的研究进展。研究表明,极端降雨通过改变降雨输入、坡体水文响应、岩土体强度劣化、沟道物源启动和承灾体暴露等过程,推动降雨触发型地质灾害由单点失稳向区域群发、由单灾种致灾向灾害链放大、由自然危险性向系统性风险演化。事件型滑坡数据库、多源遥感识别、机器学习与可解释人工智能、物理机制约束模型、雨前—雨中—雨后闭环预警和灾害链风险识别等技术,为降雨地质灾害风险识别和动态防控提供了重要支撑。未来降雨地质灾害防控应由“静态隐患点管理”转向“动态风险过程防控”,由“单灾种评价”转向“灾害链风险防控”,由“经验预警”转向“数据—机理—智能融合预警”,由“灾后处置”转向“气候适应型韧性治理”。这一转型既是地质灾害学科发展的重要方向,也是提升国家自然灾害综合防治能力的现实需求。

       

      Abstract: Climate change is profoundly altering extreme rainfall patterns, hydrological processes in mountainous regions, and the risk structure of geological hazard risks. Rainfall-triggered geological hazards, such as landslides, collapses, and debris flows, are exhibiting new characteristics, including enhanced clustering, increasingly complex cascading processes, significant risk spillover, and greater challenges in prevention and control. Traditional geological hazard prevention and control models, which mainly rely on hazard-site investigation, empirical threshold-based early warning, and post-disaster engineering mitigation, are no longer sufficient to address compound and cascading risks under climate change, such as “rainstorm–flood–flash flood–landslide–debris flow–traffic disruption–emergency response obstruction.” This paper aims to systematically review research progress on rainfall-triggered geological hazards under climate change, and to summarize their risk evolution characteristics, mechanistic understanding, modeling approaches, and prevention pathways. Focusing on extreme-rainfall-induced geological hazards, this review analyzes relevant studies from the perspectives of climate change and extreme rainfall, risk evolution of rainfall-triggered geological hazards, event-based landslide databases and formation mechanisms, hazard assessment and intelligent prediction, and disaster-chain-based monitoring, early warning, and risk prevention. Particular attention is given to research progress in China on clustered landslides induced by heavy rainfall, debris-flow risk prediction, extreme-rainfall-induced disaster chains, and emergency risk prevention and control. The review shows that extreme rainfall promotes the evolution of rainfall-triggered geological hazards from single-site failures to regional clustering, from single-hazard impacts to cascading disaster-chain amplification, and from natural hazard processes to systemic risks by altering rainfall inputs, slope hydrological responses, deterioration of rock and soil strength, initiation of channel sediment sources, and exposure of elements at risk. Event-based landslide databases, multi-source remote sensing, machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence, physically constrained models, closed-loop early warning before, during, and after rainfall events, and disaster-chain risk identification provide important support for dynamic risk identification and prevention. Future prevention and control of rainfall-triggered geological hazards should shift from “static hazard-site management” to “dynamic risk-process prevention and control,” from “single-hazard assessment” to “disaster-chain risk prevention and control,” from “empirical early warning” to “integrated data–mechanism–intelligence-based early warning,” and from “post-disaster response” to “climate-adaptive resilience governance.” These transitions represent both an important direction for the development of geological hazard research and a practical requirement for improving the national capacity for integrated natural disaster prevention and reduction.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回