ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    数据处理与物理模型驱动的油气管道滑坡灾害综合预警方法

    A Comprehensive Early Warning Method for Landslide-Affected Oil and Gas Pipelines Driven by Data Processing and Physical Models

    • 摘要:
      目的 为解决滑坡灾害影响下油气管道监测数据异常及预警模型单一化,不能有效体现滑坡及管道当前综合预警与预测预警的问题。
      方法 提出一种融合数据处理与物理模型的综合预警方法,方法采用3σ准则与滑动窗口进行异常值检测,利用卡尔曼滤波算法对缺失值进行补全,使监测数据标准化,并应用长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)对标准化后的地表位移与管道附加压应力数据进行预测,基于标准化数据综合灾害体形变、外界诱发因素及受体指标,改进了滑坡灾害四级二/三维预警矩阵模型,并应用于绵阳某管道滑坡灾害案例。
      结果 结果表明:3σ准则-滑动窗口与卡尔曼滤波的组合能有效剔除异常值并补全缺失数据;LSTM模型对地表位移和管道应力具有优异的预测性能;当前滑坡综合预警等级为黄色;预测显示半月后地表位移与管道应力将分别达到160.97 mm与−55.99 MPa,仍处于黄色预警范围,未达到橙色预警阈值。
      结论 该方法有效降低了数据异常导致的误报风险,为滑坡预警提供多源信息融合方案参考,并以期争取现场抢险决策时间。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective Oil and gas pipelines affected by landslides often suffer from abnormal monitoring data, and existing early-warning models are overly simplified. As a result, they cannot effectively reflect both current comprehensive warning and predictive warning for landslides and pipelines.
      Methods A comprehensive early-warning method integrating data processing and physical models is proposed. The 3-sigma criterion and a sliding window are used for anomaly detection, and the Kalman filtering algorithm is applied to fill missing values and standardize monitoring data. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is then used to predict standardized surface displacement and additional compressive stress in the pipeline. Based on standardized data, landslide deformation, external triggering factors, and receptor indicators are integrated to improve the four-level two-dimensional/three-dimensional early-warning matrix model for landslide hazards, which is applied to a pipeline landslide case in Mianyang.
      Results The results show that the combination of the 3-sigma criterion, sliding window, and Kalman filtering effectively removes outliers and fills missing data. The LSTM model shows excellent predictive performance for surface displacement and pipeline stress. The current comprehensive landslide warning level is yellow. The prediction indicates that after half a month, surface displacement and pipeline stress will reach 160.97 mm and −55.99 MPa, respectively; both remain within the yellow-warning range and do not reach the orange-warning threshold.
      Conclusion The proposed method effectively reduces the risk of false alarms caused by abnormal data and provides a reference for multi-source information fusion in landslide early warning, helping to gain time for on-site emergency response decision-making.

       

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