ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于多源遥感及HEC-RAS模型的榆中县“8•7”山洪灾害过程重建

    Reconstruction of the “August 7” flash flood disaster process in Yuzhong County based on multi-source remote sensing and the HEC-RAS model

    • 摘要: 2025年8月7日,甘肃榆中县暴发极端降雨山洪灾害,呈现典型“山洪-泥石流-山洪”链生特征。针对极端天气频发背景下山洪灾害链生过程反演困难的问题,本文以该事件为例,构建并验证了一套融合多源遥感与水动力模型的技术流程。通过联合气象站实测数据与ERA5-Land再分析数据集,实现了上游高位山洪泥石流转换区的降雨过程精细刻画;综合地形、土地利用及遥感灾情信息,基于HEC-RAS二维水动力模型,完成下游低位山洪漫流淹没区的成灾过程重建。结果表明:(1)ERA5-Land数据能够较好还原降雨的空间分布与累积趋势,但对短时极端降雨强度存在系统性低估,区内的峰值降雨量较实测值相差5-8倍;(2)基于12.5 m分辨率ALOS PALSAR DEM构建的HEC-RAS模型,可有效复现山洪演进路径与主要淹没范围,模拟结果与灾后高分遥感影像提取的实际灾情具有较高一致性,局部误差主要源于地形数据精度及人类工程活动对地表参数的影响。综上,本文提出的“数据-模拟-重建”一体化分析框架,体现了多源遥感在驱动与验证山洪灾害重建过程中的双重作用,可为小流域灾害的早期预警与定量评估提供技术路径与科学参考。

       

      Abstract: On August 7, 2025, a catastrophic flash flood triggered by extreme rainfall struck Yuzhong County, Gansu Province, exhibiting a typical “flash flood–debris flow–flash flood” cascading disaster chain. To address the challenge of reconstructing cascading processes of flash flood disasters under frequent extreme weather, this study takes this event as an example to establish and verify a technical process integrating multi-source remote sensing and hydrodynamic models. By combining observed data from meteorological stations with the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset, a detailed reconstruction of the rainfall process in the upstream debris flow initiation zone was achieved. Subsequently, the HEC-RAS 2D hydrodynamic model was adopted to reconstruct the inundation process in the downstream floodplain area based on topographic data, land use information, and remote sensing-based disaster extents. The results indicate that: (1) ERA5-Land data effectively captures the spatial distribution and cumulative trend of rainfall, but systematically underestimates short-duration extreme rainfall intensity, with peak rainfall in the study area differing by a factor of 5 to 8 from observed values; (2) the HEC-RAS model constructed with 12.5 m resolution ALOS PALSAR DEM effectively reproduces flood propagation paths and the main inundation extent, and simulation results are highly consistent with actual disaster extents extracted from post-event high-resolution satellite imagery. Local discrepancies are mainly attributed to topographic data accuracy and the influence of human engineering activities on surface parameters. In summary, the integrated “data–simulation–reconstruction” analytical framework proposed in this study demonstrates the dual role of multi-source remote sensing in both driving and validating the reconstruction process of flash flood disasters, providing a technical pathway and scientific reference for early warning and quantitative assessment of small-watershed disasters.

       

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