ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    干湿循环作用下砂岩强度GEP预测模型及参数敏感性分析

    GEP-based predictive modeling and parameter-sensitivity analysis of sandstone compressive strength under wet-dry cycling

    • 摘要: 为准确预测砂岩在干湿循环条件下不同pH值溶液侵蚀时单轴抗压强度的演化规律。基于166组砂岩干湿循环试验数据,采用基因表达式编程(GEP)方法构建了融合环境因素(干湿循环次数、pH值、单次循环时间)和材料特性(SiO2含量、干密度、含水率)的单轴抗压强度预测模型,并探究了6个变量对砂岩强度劣化的影响及参数敏感性。结果表明:(1)所建立的GEP模型具有优异的预测性能,其训练集和测试集R2均超过0.92,优于6种经典对比模型;(2)单次循环时间对砂岩强度呈三阶段劣化特征;干湿循环10次内强度衰减显著;砂岩强度随pH值降低呈线性递减;(3)砂岩SiO2含量从10%提升至80%时其抗压强度增加14.5%;干密度由2.06 g/cm3增至2.60 g/cm3砂岩强度由22.69 MPa提升至52.16 MPa;初始含水率在6%以内时,其强度衰减速率较快;(4)敏感性分析表明环境因素(贡献度68.3%)影响显著大于材料特性(31.7%),其中干湿循环次数(27.9%)和单次循环时间(25.1%)起主导作用。该GEP模型将复杂非线性关系转化为可解析的数学表达式,兼具预测精度与物理可解释性,为砂岩在干湿循环作用下的强度劣化机制分析提供参考。

       

      Abstract: To accurately predict the evolution of the uniaxial compressive strength of sandstone subjected to chemical erosion by solutions with different pH values during wet-dry cycling. Based on 166 sets of sandstone wet-dry cycling test data, gene expression programming (GEP) was used to construct a prediction model for uniaxial compressive strength that incorporates environmental factors and material properties. The effects of six variables on sandstone strength degradation and parameter sensitivity were investigated. The results show that: (1) The established GEP model demonstrates excellent predictive performance, with the coefficient of determination (R2) for both the training set and the test set exceeding 0.92, which is significantly better than that of six classical benchmark models; (2) The single-cycle duration exerts a three-stage degradation effect on sandstone strength: strength attenuation is pronounced within 10 wet-dry cycles, and the sandstone strength decreases linearly as the pH value decreases; (3) When the SiO2 content of sandstone increases from 10% to 80%, its compressive strength increases by 14.5%; as the dry density increases from 2.06 g/cm3 to 2.60 g/cm3, the sandstone strength increases from 22.69 MPa to 52.16 MPa; in addition, when the initial moisture content is within 6%, strength attenuates relatively rapidly. (4) Sensitivity analysis reveals that the influence of environmental factors (with a contribution of 68.3%) is significantly greater than that of material properties (31.7%), among which the number of wet-dry cycles (27.9%) and single-cycle duration (25.1%) play dominant roles. This GEP model converts complex nonlinear relationships into interpretable mathematical expressions, with both predictive accuracy and physical interpretability. It thus provides a reference for analyzing the strength degradation mechanism of sandstone under wet-dry cycles.

       

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