ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    时序InSAR与因果分析的澜沧江上游形变监测及典型滑坡时滞量化研究

    Deformation monitoring and time-lag quantification of typical landslides in the upper lancang river using time-series insar and causal analysis

    • 摘要: 澜沧江上游是青藏高原向云贵高原过渡的关键地貌单元,其独特的高山峡谷与宽谷交替的地貌特征导致滑坡频发,严重制约该区域经济社会的可持续发展。当前该区域滑坡监测研究相对有限,且现有孕灾归因分析中,降水作为关键诱发因素在时空尺度上的非线性驱动作用及其滞后效应往往被相关性分析过度简化,难以定量揭示其真实的物理联系与内在驱动机理。提出一种融合多源遥感协同监测与因果发现的研究框架。首先,基于升降轨Sentinel-1 SAR数据及高分辨率光学遥感影像,采用小基线集差分干涉测量技术(Small Baseline Subsets InSAR, SBAS-InSAR),实现活动性滑坡的广域早期识别与高精度时序形变监测,并分析其空间分布特征;接着,选取地貌特征和变形特征差异显著的两个典型滑坡长时序形变数据,通过逐次变分模态分解方法分离形变的周期项与趋势项;最后,为克服相关分析对非线性滞后因果关系的局限性,引入收敛交叉映射(Convergent Cross Mapping,CCM)方法,定量诊断并揭示降水与滑坡周期性形变之间的因果驱动强度及其最优滞后时间。研究结果表明:(1)联合升降轨数据监测到研究区内视线向最大形变速率分别为−83 mm/a和−96 mm/a,并圈定出3009处活动滑坡;(2)活动滑坡在空间上表现出明显的聚集性特征,主要集中分布在陡坡地带、断层影响区、河道水系及交通线路周边区域;(3)CCM方法成功捕捉到降水与滑坡周期性形变之间驱动关系的最优滞后效应,其中香达村滑坡为36天。CCM能有效揭示降水-形变间的因果关系及其最优滞后时滞,更贴合复杂滑坡系统演化过程的非线性物理机制。研究成果不仅拓展了复杂地貌区滑坡形变机制分析的技术手段,更重要地,验证了多源遥感协同监测与因果分析方法融合框架在解析地质灾害关键驱动因子作用机制方面的适用性与强大潜力,为复杂地貌区滑坡灾害的物理驱动机制解析与动态风险评估提供了数据驱动的科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The upper reaches of the Lancang River represent a critical geomorphic transition zone from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau to the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The distinctive alternation of high mountain gorges and wide valleys in this region leads to frequent landslides, severely constraining sustainable socio-economic development. However, landslide monitoring studies in this area remain limited. Moreover, in existing hazard genesis attribution analyses, precipitation, a key triggering factor, is often oversimplified by correlation-based approaches, which fail to capture its non-linear spatiotemporal driving effects and lagged responses, thereby hindering quantitative interpretation of the underlying physical mechanisms. This study proposed an integrated research framework combining multi-source remote sensing-based collaborative monitoring with causal discovery. First, ascending and descending Sentinel-1 SAR data together with high-resolution optical imagery were used to perform regional early identification and high-precision time-series deformation monitoring of active landslides using the Small Baseline Subset InSAR (SBAS-InSAR) technique, followed by analysis of their spatial distribution characteristics. Subsequently, long time-series deformation data from two representative landslides with distinct geomorphic and deformation characteristics were selected, and Sequential Variational Mode Decomposition (SVMD) method was applied to separate periodic and trend components. Finally, to overcome the limitations of correlation analysis in identifying nonlinear lagged causality, the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) method was introduced to quantitatively diagnose the causal driving strength between precipitation and periodic landslide deformation, as well as the optimal lag time. The results indicate that: (1) Joint ascending-descending observations detected maximum line-of-sight deformation rates of −83 mm/year and −96 mm/year, respectively, and identified a total of 3,009 active landslides. (2) Active landslides exhibited significant spatial clustering, predominantly concentrated on steep slopes, within fault-influenced zones, and near river systems and transportation corridors. (3) The CCM method successfully captured the optimal lag effect between precipitation and periodic landslide deformation, with an optimal lag of 36 days for the Xiangda Village landslide. The CCM method effectively reveals the causal relationship between precipitation and deformation and its optimal lag, providing a better representation of the non-linear physical mechanisms governing evolution of complex landslide systems. This research not only expands the technical means for analyzing landslide deformation mechanisms in complex terrains but, more importantly, validates the applicability and strong potential of the proposed integrated framework combining multi-source remote sensing collaborative monitoring and causal analysis for deciphering the driving mechanisms of key factors in geological hazards. The findings provide a data-driven scientific support for elucidating the physical driving mechanisms and performing dynamic risk assessments of landslides in complex geomorphic regions.

       

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