ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    2023年甘肃积石山 Ms6.2 地震区域地震动地形效应与诱发滑坡评估

    Regional seismic topographic effects and seismic landslide hazard assessment during the 2023 Ms 6.2 Jishishan earthquake in Gansu, China

    • 摘要: 2023年12月18日,甘肃积石山 Ms6.2级地震诱发了大量的滑坡、崩塌并震裂山体。近期,这次地震断层破裂为东倾断层的新认识和丰富的地震动记录,为进一步分析发震断层破裂特征和区域地震动地形效应,开展地震诱发斜坡灾害的精细评估提供了研究基础。文章采用甘肃、青海两省强震台、烈度台的加速度记录,通过去直流漂移后进行基线校正获取了地震动Arias强度、峰值加速度PGA(peak ground acceleration),以断层距、场地Vs30、地形高差为参数,基于非线性最小二乘拟合建立了考虑地形效应的Arias(Arias intensity, AI)强度和PGA地震动衰减模型。基于修正地形效应的Arias强度空间分布,采用地震滑坡Newmark累积位移模型评估了积石山地震诱发地震滑坡的危险性,并与前人遥感解译获取的震中区同震滑坡空间分布进行对比。结果表明:地震动地形放大系数与地形高差呈近似线性关系。具体而言,地形高差每增加10 m,Arias强度增大1.19倍,PGA增大1.09倍,Arias强度的地形放大效应大于PGA;采用考虑地形效应的地震动参数开展积石山地震诱发地震滑坡评估,能够有效识别区域地震滑坡分布规律,但仍需通过获取大比例尺岩性及地形数据进一步提升局地尺度的评估精度。研究成果可为类似地区地震动衰减规律研究及精细化地震滑坡风险评估提供参考和技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: On December 18, 2023, the Ms 6.2 Jishishan earthquake in Gansu Province triggered widespread landslides, collapses, and slope failures. Recent seismological studies indicate that the event was caused by an east-dipping fault rupture. The extensive ground motion recordings obtained from this earthquake provide a solid foundation for refined assessments of coseismic landslide hazards, incorporating both fault rupture characteristics and regional topographic amplification effects. This study utilized acceleration records from strong-motion and intensity monitoring stations across Gansu and Qinghai provinces. Through systematic baseline correction to eliminate DC offsets, key ground motion parameters — including Arias intensity and peak ground acceleration (PGA) —were derived. Using nonlinear least squares regression, we developed topography-sensitive attenuation models for both parameters, incorporating fault distance, VS30 site conditions, and topographic relief as predictive variables. Subsequently, the Newmark cumulative displacement model was applied to assess coseismic landslide hazards associated with the Jishishan earthquake. The modeled displacements were systematically compared with the spatial distribution of coseismic landslides near the epicenter obtained, obtained through remote sensing interpretation. Key findings reveal a quasi-linear relationship between topographic amplification coefficients and terrain relief. Specifically, statistical analysis demonstrates that every 10-meter increase in topographic relief lead to amplification factors of 1.18 for Arias intensity and 1.09, respectively for PGA, indicating a slightly stronger topographic amplification effects of Arias intensity. The proposed hazard assessment methodology, which explicitly incorporates topographic amplification into ground motion prediction, effectively captures the regional distribution patterns of seismically induced landslides. However, the accuracy of local-scale predictions still requires enhancement through the acquisition of high-resolution lithological and topographic data.

       

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